West Virginia v North Carolina
Friday, November 27, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center. West Virginia our rank 45 · 3-0; North Carolina our rank 34 · 3-0.
Who will win West Virginia vs North Carolina?
The model gives North Carolina a 57% chance to beat West Virginia, with a projected score of North Carolina 73, West Virginia 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | |||||
| BrownG · 28 min | 15.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 15+ 54% | |
| AbleG · 25 min | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| AdamsF · 22 min | 8.8 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 40% | |
| StevensonF · 26 min | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 33% | |
| West Virginia | |||||
| SadlerG · 26 min | 12.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| BizjackG · 29 min | 12.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 15+ 34% | |
| SyllaC · 20 min | 8.8 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 40% | |
| LorientF · 25 min | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Brown: West Virginia 56%North Carolina 44%
The white mark is the call with him: North Carolina 57%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | North Carolina without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | ||||
| Terrence Brown | 3.4 | 44% | −13 | 72–71 |
| Jarin Stevenson | 3.1 | 46% | −11 | 72–71 |
| Matt Able | 3.0 | 46% | −11 | 72–71 |
| Neo Avdalas | 2.7 | 47% | −10 | 72–71 |
| West Virginia | ||||
| Brenen Lorient | 3.0 | 67% | +10 | 69–74 |
| Finley Bizjack | 2.7 | 66% | +9 | 69–74 |
| Javan Buchanan | 2.5 | 65% | +8 | 70–74 |
| Joson Sanon | 2.1 | 64% | +7 | 70–74 |
Change is in North Carolina's win chance, in points. Scores read West Virginia, then North Carolina. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
West Virginia 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 75-61vs MercerDidn't cover −24.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6W 91-53vs StetsonCovered −27.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2W 91-46vs Niagara
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.7 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
North Carolina 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 76-63vs WyomingCovered −12.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 6W 109-70vs WoffordCovered −21.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 2W 80-72vs W Carolina
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| West Virginia | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.3 80th | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.9 23rd | 97.2 31st |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 116th | 51.4% 118th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 101st | 48.1% 36th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 75th | 16.4% 26th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 153rd | 29.4% 312th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 135th | 0.27 132nd |
The widest gap: North Carolina's defense (31st) against West Virginia's offense (80th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- West Virginia 33, North Carolina 34
- First-half margin
- North Carolina by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- West Virginia 38, North Carolina 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- West Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
- North Carolina, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.3 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
West Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finley BizjackG | 29 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Miles SadlerG | 26 | 12.9 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Brenen LorientF | 25 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Martin SomervilleG | 21 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Seydou TraoreG | 20 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mouhamed SyllaC | 20 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 51% | |||||
| Javan BuchananF | 20 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Joson SanonG | 20 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
North Carolina
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrence BrownG | 28 | 15.8 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jarin StevensonF | 26 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Neo AvdalasG | 25 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Matt AbleG | 25 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Sayon KeitaC | 22 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Maximo AdamsF | 22 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Isaiah DenisG | 16 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jaydon YoungG | 14 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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