Who will win Drake vs Boise St?
The model gives Boise State a 81% chance to beat Drake, with a projected score of Boise St 83, Drake 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Boise St | |||||
| Wheeler-ThomasG · 28 min | 15.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 15+ 52% | |
| ButkaF · 28 min | 14.7 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| NetoG · 30 min | 14.4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| AhrensF · 26 min | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 64% | |
 Drake | |||||
| CarrollF · 27 min | 14.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 15+ 48% | |
| LarsonG · 31 min | 10.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 49% | |
| KindellG · 26 min | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| BurnsF · 25 min | 8.9 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Spencer Ahrens: Drake 26%Boise St 74%
The white mark is the call with him: Boise St 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Boise St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise St | ||||
| Spencer Ahrens | 2.5 | 74% | −7 | 74–81 |
| Dovydas Butka | 2.4 | 74% | −7 | 74–82 |
| Damari Wheeler-Thomas | 2.4 | 75% | −6 | 74–82 |
| Pearson Carmichael | 2.0 | 75% | −6 | 74–82 |
| Drake | ||||
| Dre Kindell | 1.8 | 85% | +4 | 72–84 |
| Jon Carroll | 1.4 | 84% | +3 | 72–83 |
| Eli Shetlar | 0.8 | 83% | +2 | 72–83 |
| Owen Larson | 0.7 | 82% | +1 | 72–83 |
Change is in Boise St's win chance, in points. Scores read Drake, then Boise St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Drake 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 88.0 and allowing 58.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Drake | Boise St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.5 133rd | 116.1 38th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.7 125th | 102.4 89th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 219th | 52.5% 60th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 279th | 51.0% 222nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 270th | 16.4% 24th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.1% 222nd | 31.4% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 137th | 0.25 221st |
The widest gap: Boise St's offense (38th) against Drake's defense (125th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Drake 34, Boise St 39
- First-half margin
- Boise St by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.9
- Projected second half
- Drake 39, Boise St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
- Boise St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 57.3 scored, 33.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen LarsonG | 31 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jon CarrollF | 27 | 14.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Dre KindellG | 26 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Andrew AliaG | 26 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Justin BurnsF | 25 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 6+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Eli ShetlarG | 20 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 13 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 12 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Boise St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aginaldo NetoG | 30 | 14.4 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Dovydas ButkaF | 28 | 14.7 | 8.6 | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 9+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Damari Wheeler-ThomasG | 28 | 15.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Spencer AhrensF | 26 | 12.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Pearson CarmichaelF | 21 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Julian BowieG | 17 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Jerquarius StanbackF | 14 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Rayzhon BergersenG | 12 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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