Wichita St at Kentucky
Friday, November 27, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena. Wichita St our rank 91 · 2-1; Kentucky AP 24, our rank 36 · 2-1.
Who will win Wichita St vs Kentucky?
The model gives Kentucky a 88% chance to beat Wichita State, with a projected score of Kentucky 86, Wichita St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | |||||
| DialloG · 28 min | 17.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 15+ 62% | |
| WilkinsG · 26 min | 14.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| MomcilovicF · 31 min | 13.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 15+ 42% | |
| MorenoC · 24 min | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 10+ 54% | |
| Wichita St | |||||
| GilesG · 26 min | 13.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| BergC · 20 min | 11.2 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 10+ 57% | |
| BattieF · 24 min | 9.5 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| FrisonG · 21 min | 8.6 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Milan Momcilovic: Wichita St 22%Kentucky 78%
The white mark is the call with him: Kentucky 88%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kentucky without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Milan Momcilovic | 4.9 | 78% | −10 | 74–83 |
| Malachi Moreno | 3.5 | 81% | −7 | 74–84 |
| Zoom Diallo | 3.3 | 82% | −6 | 74–84 |
| Alex Wilkins | 1.8 | 85% | −3 | 73–85 |
| Wichita St | ||||
| Dillon Battie | 2.5 | 92% | +4 | 71–87 |
| Kenyon Giles | 2.1 | 92% | +4 | 71–87 |
| Jahari Long | 1.4 | 91% | +3 | 71–86 |
| Emmanuel Okorafor | 1.3 | 90% | +2 | 71–86 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read Wichita St, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Wichita St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 113-60vs Friends
- Nov 8L 86-93vs USCDidn't cover +6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 4W 79-67vs CSU Northridge
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wichita St | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.9 85th | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.2 98th | 100.3 65th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 242nd | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 50th | 50.6% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 97th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 230th | 31.9% 169th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 96th | 0.24 300th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against Wichita St's defense (98th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Wichita St 33, Kentucky 41
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 7.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Projected second half
- Wichita St 39, Kentucky 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wichita St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Wichita St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon GilesG | 26 | 13.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jahari LongG | 26 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Dillon BattieF | 24 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Bryce HeardG | 22 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jordan FrisonG | 21 | 8.6 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| William BergC | 20 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 48% | |||||
| Desmeon JonesG | 16 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| TJ WilliamsG | 13 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 78% to play · 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
Missed the last game: William Berg (24 min a game).
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan MomcilovicF | 31 | 13.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Zoom DialloG | 28 | 17.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Alex WilkinsG | 26 | 14.0 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Malachi MorenoC | 24 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 8+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Justin McBrideF | 19 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 19 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ousmane N'DiayeF | 18 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Braydon HawthorneF | 17 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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