Who will win Virginia vs Xavier?
The model gives Virginia a 56% chance to beat Xavier, with a projected score of Virginia 78, Xavier 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Virginia | |||||
| De RidderF · 25 min | 15.4 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 15+ 51% | |
| LewisG · 27 min | 12.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 15+ 35% | |
| MalloryG · 26 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 10+ 65% | |
| GrunlohC · 26 min | 10.9 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 55% | |
 Xavier | |||||
| NwokoF · 22 min | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 59% | |
| WestryG · 19 min | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 10+ 53% | |
| MilicevicF · 21 min | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| WashingtonG · 23 min | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Thijs De Ridder: Virginia 41%Xavier 59%
The white mark is the call with him: Virginia 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Virginia without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia | ||||
| Thijs De Ridder | 4.2 | 41% | −15 | 75–78 |
| Johann Grunloh | 4.0 | 42% | −14 | 76–78 |
| Chance Mallory | 3.9 | 42% | −14 | 76–78 |
| Sam Lewis | 3.4 | 44% | −12 | 76–77 |
| Xavier | ||||
| Mike Nwoko | 3.3 | 67% | +11 | 79–74 |
| Tru Washington | 3.2 | 67% | +11 | 79–74 |
| Filip Borovicanin | 2.6 | 65% | +9 | 79–74 |
| Chance Westry | 2.6 | 65% | +9 | 79–74 |
Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Virginia, then Xavier. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Virginia 4-0WWWW
- Nov 10W 95-61vs BucknellDidn't cover −38.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 8W 91-72vs ArkansasCovered −3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 97-72vs NortheasternDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 3W 89-60vs Drexel
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 3 over, 0 under
Xavier 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 100-55vs Detroit MercyCovered −35.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 76-53vs E MichiganDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 97-52vs Mount St Marys
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Virginia | Xavier | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 119.9 14th | 114.1 61st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.9 26th | 92.3 13th |
| Possessions a game | 70.6 209th | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.3% 71st | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 210th | 45.6% 2nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 211th | 18.3% 205th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.0% 8th | 31.0% 228th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 327th | 0.24 294th |
The widest gap: Virginia's defense (26th) against Xavier's offense (61st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Virginia 36, Xavier 35
- First-half margin
- Virginia by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.9
- Projected second half
- Virginia 41, Xavier 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 4 of 4 · 47.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Xavier, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 20.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LewisG | 27 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Johann GrunlohC | 26 | 10.9 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Chance MalloryG | 26 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Thijs De RidderF | 25 | 15.4 | 6.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Nolan AdekunleF | 24 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kalu AnyaF | 13 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Elijah GertrudeG | 12 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jan VideG | 12 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
Xavier
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip BorovicaninF | 24 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Tru WashingtonG | 23 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mike NwokoF | 22 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Jovan MilicevicF | 21 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ruben DominguezG | 21 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Chance WestryG | 19 | 10.7 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Nikos ChitikoudisF | 18 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Gabriel PozzatoF | 16 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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