Cincinnati v Boston College
Friday, November 27, 2026, 4:30 PM ET at State Farm Field House. Cincinnati our rank 23 · 2-1; Boston College our rank 84 · 3-0.
Who will win Cincinnati vs Boston College?
The model gives Cincinnati a 80% chance to beat Boston College, with a projected score of Cincinnati 76, Boston College 67.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | |||||
| RileyG · 25 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 10+ 65% | |
| Collins Jr.G · 28 min | 12.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 10+ 63% | |
| ColvinG · 24 min | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 55% | |
| TejadaF · 22 min | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| Boston College | |||||
| WilliamsG · 35 min | 18.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 20+ 40% | |
| SmrekarG · 30 min | 10.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 10+ 54% | |
| HungerF · 26 min | 10.1 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| ZeiglerG · 29 min | 8.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without MJ Collins Jr.: Cincinnati 69%Boston College 31%
The white mark is the call with him: Cincinnati 80%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cincinnati without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| MJ Collins Jr. | 3.8 | 69% | −11 | 74–69 |
| Tylen Riley | 3.0 | 72% | −8 | 75–68 |
| Myles Colvin | 2.5 | 73% | −7 | 75–68 |
| Amani Lyles | 2.3 | 74% | −6 | 75–68 |
| Boston College | ||||
| Money Williams | 3.5 | 88% | +8 | 78–65 |
| Luke Hunger | 2.1 | 85% | +5 | 77–66 |
| Brandon Benjamin | 1.9 | 84% | +4 | 77–66 |
| Armoni Zeigler | 1.7 | 84% | +4 | 77–66 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read Cincinnati, then Boston College. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Cincinnati 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 61-63vs MinnesotaDidn't cover −7.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 5W 81-64vs Green BayDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 79-53vs American
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 73.7 and allowing 60.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Boston College 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 82-54vs MD EasternCovered −26.5 · Over 128.5
- Nov 6W 71-55vs UMassCovered −6.5 · Under 144.5
- Nov 3W 76-50vs Wagner
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 76.3 and allowing 53.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Cincinnati | Boston College | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 113.7 62nd | 112.1 73rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 91.7 8th | 102.8 94th |
| Possessions a game | 70.8 184th | 68.7 348th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 255th | 49.8% 235th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 108th | 48.5% 44th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 207th | 17.6% 127th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 118th | 36.1% 7th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 329th | 0.31 21st |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's defense (8th) against Boston College's offense (73rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Cincinnati 36, Boston College 31
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 5.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.0
- Projected second half
- Cincinnati 40, Boston College 36
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Cincinnati, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 35.0 scored, 31.7 allowed
- Boston College, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.3 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr.G | 28 | 12.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Tylen RileyG | 25 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Myles ColvinG | 24 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tyler TejadaF | 22 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Eric MahaffeyG | 21 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Amani LylesF | 17 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| David IwezeF | 16 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Adlan ElaminF | 14 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Boston College
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Money WilliamsG | 35 | 18.4 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Zak SmrekarG | 30 | 10.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ernest SheltonG | 29 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Armoni ZeiglerG | 29 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Luke HungerF | 26 | 10.1 | 4.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Colby DugganF | 21 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Brandon BenjaminF | 18 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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