American 53, Cincinnati 79
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Fifth Third Arena. American our rank 168 · 1-2; Cincinnati our rank 23 · 2-1.
Who won American vs Cincinnati?
Final: Cincinnati 79, American University 53. Before tip-off the model gave Cincinnati a 99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 28.1 points for Cincinnati. MJ Collins Jr. scored 13 for Cincinnati; Madden Collins had 20 for American.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without MJ Collins Jr.: American 2%Cincinnati 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Cincinnati 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Cincinnati without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | ||||
| MJ Collins Jr. | 3.8 | 98% | −1 | 55–80 |
| Tylen Riley | 3.0 | 98% | −1 | 55–80 |
| Myles Colvin | 2.5 | 98% | −1 | 55–80 |
| Amani Lyles | 2.3 | 98% | −1 | 55–80 |
| American | ||||
| Madden Collins | 2.0 | 99% | 0 | 53–83 |
| Greg Jones | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 53–82 |
| Julen Iturbe | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 53–82 |
Change is in Cincinnati's win chance, in points. Scores read American, then Cincinnati. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
American
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Cincinnati
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| American | Cincinnati | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.1 198th | 113.7 62nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.4 162nd | 91.7 8th |
| Possessions a game | 69.9 276th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.6% 103rd | 49.4% 255th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 70th | 49.5% 108th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 227th | 18.3% 207th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.7% 331st | 32.8% 118th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 129th | 0.23 329th |
The widest gap: Cincinnati's defense (8th) against American's offense (198th), of 365 teams.
First half
Cincinnati led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 13.4 points and the total by 4.6.
- At halftime
- American 33, Cincinnati 35
- Projected halftime score
- American 24, Cincinnati 39
- First-half margin
- Cincinnati by 15.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
American
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julen IturbeF | 28 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| Madden CollinsG | 28 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Matt MayockF | 23 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg JonesF | 23 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Wyatt NausadisG | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Eric MichaelsF | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean HogansG | 16 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Merrick SmithF | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ SandiG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Cincinnati
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MJ Collins Jr.G | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tylen RileyG | 23 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Tyler TejadaF | 22 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Adlan ElaminF | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| David IwezeF | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| Akai FlemingG | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Elijah PerrymanG | 15 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| Myles ColvinG | 14 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Trevian CarsonG | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 |