Who will win Liberty vs St Thomas?
The model gives Liberty a 59% chance to beat St. Thomas, with a projected score of Liberty 76, St Thomas 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Liberty | |||||
| CampbellG · 27 min | 12.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| SancombG · 25 min | 9.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| CampbellG · 22 min | 9.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 10+ 45% | |
| CarterG · 26 min | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 10+ 32% | |
 St Thomas | |||||
| TibbitsG · 29 min | 11.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| FranksG · 26 min | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| LorenzF · 25 min | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 43% | |
| BjerkeF · 25 min | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cooper Campbell: Liberty 54%St Thomas 46%
The white mark is the call with him: Liberty 59%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Liberty without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | ||||
| Cooper Campbell | 1.6 | 54% | −5 | 75–74 |
| Zander Carter | 0.9 | 56% | −3 | 76–74 |
| Cobi Campbell | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 76–74 |
| Eli Sancomb | 0.7 | 57% | −2 | 76–74 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 62% | +3 | 76–73 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 61% | +2 | 76–73 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 61% | +2 | 76–73 |
Change is in Liberty's win chance, in points. Scores read Liberty, then St Thomas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Liberty 1-1LW
- Nov 7W 113-54vs Boyce
- Nov 1L 57-72vs High Point
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 63.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Liberty | St Thomas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 155th | 106.3 138th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.4 137th | 110.6 245th |
| Possessions a game | 69.0 333rd | 71.0 157th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.2% 279th | 51.1% 137th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.2% 238th | 49.0% 69th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 107th | 17.2% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 287th | 27.9% 353rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 247th | 0.31 20th |
The widest gap: Liberty's offense (155th) against St Thomas's defense (245th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Liberty 36, St Thomas 34
- First-half margin
- Liberty by 1.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.0
- Projected second half
- Liberty 40, St Thomas 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Liberty, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 51.0 scored, 19.0 allowed
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 37.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Liberty
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper CampbellG | 27 | 12.7 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Zander CarterG | 26 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Eli SancombG | 25 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Eli HerbertG | 23 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Cobi CampbellG | 22 | 9.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 40% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Matthew SheltonG | 19 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Reece DavidsonF | 17 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Ryan Jones Jr.F | 15 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden TibbitsG | 29 | 11.5 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 10.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Carter BjerkeF | 25 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jeremy LorenzF | 25 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 22 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Caden WilkinsF | 17 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Austin HerroG | 16 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Kendall BlueG | 13 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Missed the last game: Austin Herro (20 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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