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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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NC Central at Liberty

Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Liberty Arena (VA). NC Central our rank 338 · 0-3; Liberty our rank 136 · 1-1.

Who will win NC Central vs Liberty?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Liberty a 90% chance to beat North Carolina Central, with a projected score of Liberty 76, NC Central 61. The spread is Liberty −17.5, with an over/under of 137.5. The model makes it Liberty by 15.1, 2.4 points toward NC Central, and projects 137 total points.

To winLiberty 90%NC Central 10%
Projected score61–76NC Central, then Liberty
Margin15.1Liberty · line: Liberty 17.5
Total137.3line: 137.5
First half28–36Liberty ahead 78%
NC Central by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Liberty by 50Model: Liberty by 15.1Line: Liberty by 17.5NC Central by 10by 10by 30Liberty by 50Model: Liberty by 15.1Line: Liberty by 17.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Liberty
CampbellG · 26 min12.42.73.610+ 65%
SancombG · 24 min9.54.02.510+ 45%
CampbellG · 22 min9.41.21.510+ 44%
CarterG · 25 min7.73.72.210+ 31%
NC Central
KaneG · 26 min9.73.03.010+ 46%
MasonF · 25 min9.44.60.610+ 43%
BrownG · 30 min8.45.02.010+ 36%
SanonG · 26 min8.12.71.010+ 34%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Cooper Campbell: NC Central 13%Liberty 87%

The white mark is the call with him: Liberty 90%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsLiberty without himChangeProjected score
Liberty
Cooper Campbell1.687%−362–75
Zander Carter0.989%−162–76
Cobi Campbell0.789%−161–76
Eli Sancomb0.789%−161–76

Change is in Liberty's win chance, in points. Scores read NC Central, then Liberty. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineLiberty −17.5137.5
ModelLiberty −15.1137.3
Gap2.4 toward NC Central0.2 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    NC Central 0-3LLL

    1. Nov 11L 51-65at VMIDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 7L 75-80at LongwoodCovered +12.5 · Over 149.5
    3. Nov 2L 62-78at Georgia
    Last 3
    0–3, scoring 62.7 and allowing 74.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    Liberty 1-1LW

    1. Nov 7W 113-54vs Boyce
    2. Nov 1L 57-72vs High Point
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 63.0

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    NC CentralLiberty
    Points scored per 100 possessions92.9 354th105.3 155th
    Points allowed per 100110.3 237th106.4 137th
    Possessions a game69.7 292nd69.0 333rd
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.9% 293rd49.2% 279th
    Opponents' shooting49.6% 119th51.2% 238th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.1% 190th17.4% 107th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.6% 260th29.9% 287th
    Free throws per shot0.24 292nd0.25 247th

    The widest gap: Liberty's defense (137th) against NC Central's offense (354th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    NC Central 28, Liberty 36
    First-half margin
    Liberty by 8.3
    First-half points, both teams
    64.4
    Projected second half
    NC Central 33, Liberty 40
    Second-half points, both teams
    72.9
    Tied at the half
    4%
    NC Central, first halves so far
    Led 0 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
    Liberty, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 1 · 51.0 scored, 19.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    NC Central

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Trey BrownG308.45.02.00.5
    10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 57%
    Duor DuorF276.64.90.90.5
    5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 36%
    Darius KaneG269.73.03.00.8
    10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50%
    Cristian SanonG268.12.71.01.8
    10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49%
    Tyler MasonF259.44.60.60.1
    10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 46%
    Maurice VasselF154.22.80.30.0
    5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 49%
    Isaiah BuckleyG143.41.70.80.4
    5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34%
    Chandler ThomasG143.11.70.50.4
    5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 35%

    Liberty

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Cooper CampbellG2612.42.73.61.4
    10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 48%
    Zander CarterG257.73.72.20.8
    10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50%
    Eli SancombG249.54.02.50.9
    10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55%
    Eli HerbertG236.52.82.01.3
    5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55%
    Cobi CampbellG229.41.21.51.7
    10+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 42% · 2+ threes 48%
    Matthew SheltonG196.52.41.10.7
    5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 49%
    Reece DavidsonF175.73.60.80.3
    5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 22%
    Ryan Jones Jr.F165.83.30.11.0
    5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    NC Central next: at George Mason, Wed, Nov 18 · 3%Liberty next: vs S Illinois, Tue, Nov 17 · 52%NC Central: schedule and oddsLiberty: schedule and odds