NC Central at George Mason
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena. NC Central our rank 338 · 0-3; George Mason our rank 96 · 3-0.
Who will win NC Central vs George Mason?
The model gives George Mason a 97% chance to beat North Carolina Central, with a projected score of George Mason 77, NC Central 56.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | |||||
| OkojieG · 30 min | 13.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 15+ 38% | |
| ValentineG · 24 min | 9.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| JonesF · 24 min | 9.5 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 45% | |
| PendergrassF · 18 min | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 44% | |
| NC Central | |||||
| KaneG · 26 min | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 10+ 40% | |
| MasonF · 25 min | 8.6 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 10+ 38% | |
| BrownG · 30 min | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
| SanonG · 25 min | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 5+ 68% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Emmanuel Kanga: NC Central 5%George Mason 95%
The white mark is the call with him: George Mason 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | George Mason without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | ||||
| Emmanuel Kanga | 2.4 | 95% | −2 | 57–76 |
| Baraka Okojie | 2.2 | 95% | −2 | 57–76 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | 1.5 | 96% | −1 | 57–76 |
| Elijah Jones | 1.4 | 96% | −1 | 57–76 |
Change is in George Mason's win chance, in points. Scores read NC Central, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NC Central 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 51-65at VMIDidn't cover +7.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 7L 75-80at LongwoodCovered +12.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 62-78at Georgia
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.7 and allowing 74.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
George Mason 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 76-68vs Kansas CityDidn't cover −15.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 68-51vs Coppin StDidn't cover −28.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 2W 82-54vs UMBC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.3 and allowing 57.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC Central | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 92.9 354th | 106.4 134th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.3 237th | 99.8 55th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 293rd | 49.7% 241st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 119th | 47.9% 34th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 190th | 18.0% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.6% 260th | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 292nd | 0.28 88th |
The widest gap: George Mason's defense (55th) against NC Central's offense (354th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NC Central 26, George Mason 37
- First-half margin
- George Mason by 11.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.5
- Projected second half
- NC Central 31, George Mason 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 70.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NC Central, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 25.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
- George Mason, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NC Central
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey BrownG | 30 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Duor DuorF | 26 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Darius KaneG | 26 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Cristian SanonG | 25 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Tyler MasonF | 25 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 57% | |||||
| Maurice VasselF | 15 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
| Isaiah BuckleyG | 14 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Chandler ThomasG | 14 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka OkojieG | 30 | 13.2 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 55% | |||||
| Brayden O'ConnorG | 28 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Makhai ValentineG | 24 | 9.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Emmanuel KangaF | 24 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Elijah JonesF | 24 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Efeosa Oliogu-ElaborG | 24 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 41% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Shane PendergrassF | 18 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Emmett AdairF | 11 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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