Bradley v George Mason
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 1:00 PM ET at McArthur Center. Bradley our rank 208 · 2-2; George Mason our rank 96 · 3-0.
Who will win Bradley vs George Mason?
The model gives George Mason a 83% chance to beat Bradley, with a projected score of George Mason 71, Bradley 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | |||||
| OkojieG · 31 min | 12.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| ValentineG · 25 min | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 10+ 44% | |
| JonesF · 25 min | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 10+ 41% | |
| O'ConnorG · 29 min | 8.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 39% | |
| Bradley | |||||
| PaytonG · 32 min | 10.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| ThornbrueF · 24 min | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 33% | |
| AlarieF · 23 min | 6.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 5+ 63% | |
| IbukunoluwaF · 24 min | 6.4 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Emmanuel Kanga: Bradley 23%George Mason 77%
The white mark is the call with him: George Mason 83%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | George Mason without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | ||||
| Emmanuel Kanga | 2.4 | 77% | −6 | 62–70 |
| Baraka Okojie | 2.2 | 78% | −5 | 62–70 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | 1.5 | 79% | −4 | 61–70 |
| Elijah Jones | 1.4 | 80% | −3 | 61–70 |
| Bradley | ||||
| Timoty van der Knaap | 0.9 | 85% | +2 | 60–72 |
| Dietrich Richardson | 0.7 | 84% | +1 | 60–71 |
Change is in George Mason's win chance, in points. Scores read Bradley, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bradley 2-2WLLW
- Nov 12W 56-54vs Coppin StDidn't cover −13.5 · Under 131.5
- Nov 10L 45-62at DavidsonDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7L 52-63vs PacificDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 2W 85-41vs Monmouth (IL)
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 59.5 and allowing 55.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 3 under
George Mason 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 76-68vs Kansas CityDidn't cover −15.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 68-51vs Coppin StDidn't cover −28.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 2W 82-54vs UMBC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.3 and allowing 57.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bradley | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.3 311th | 106.4 134th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.1 104th | 99.8 55th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 46.4% 358th | 49.7% 241st |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.9% 32nd | 47.9% 34th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.4% 363rd | 18.0% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 111th | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 255th | 0.28 88th |
The widest gap: George Mason's defense (55th) against Bradley's offense (311th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bradley 28, George Mason 34
- First-half margin
- George Mason by 5.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.7
- Projected second half
- Bradley 33, George Mason 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bradley, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 27.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- George Mason, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bradley
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevon PaytonG | 32 | 10.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Ben ThornbrueF | 24 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Timoty van der KnaapG | 24 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Noah WilliamsF | 24 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Josh IbukunoluwaF | 24 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Xander AlarieF | 23 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Max GaspaG | 23 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kyle GrillG | 16 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
Missed the last game: Josh Ibukunoluwa (27 min a game).
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka OkojieG | 31 | 12.8 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Brayden O'ConnorG | 29 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Makhai ValentineG | 25 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Emmanuel KangaF | 25 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 8+ reb 51% | |||||
| Elijah JonesF | 25 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Efeosa Oliogu-ElaborG | 24 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Shane PendergrassF | 18 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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