UMBC 54, George Mason 82
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena. UMBC our rank 313 · 2-2; George Mason our rank 96 · 3-0.
Who won UMBC vs George Mason?
Final: George Mason 82, UMBC 54. Before tip-off the model gave George Mason a 92% chance to win, with a projected margin of 17.4 points for George Mason. Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor scored 17 for George Mason; Aidan Able had 13 for UMBC.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Emmanuel Kanga: UMBC 11%George Mason 89%
The white mark is the call with him: George Mason 92%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | George Mason without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | ||||
| Emmanuel Kanga | 2.4 | 89% | −3 | 58–73 |
| Baraka Okojie | 2.2 | 89% | −3 | 58–73 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | 1.5 | 90% | −2 | 58–74 |
| Elijah Jones | 1.4 | 90% | −2 | 58–74 |
Change is in George Mason's win chance, in points. Scores read UMBC, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
UMBC
No games yet this season: this is its first.
George Mason
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UMBC | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.8 305th | 106.4 134th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.8 305th | 99.8 55th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 197th | 49.7% 241st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 76th | 47.9% 34th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 225th | 18.0% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 291st | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 223rd | 0.28 88th |
The widest gap: George Mason's defense (55th) against UMBC's offense (305th), of 365 teams.
First half
George Mason led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.5 points and the total by 1.5.
- At halftime
- UMBC 27, George Mason 33
- Projected halftime score
- UMBC 26, George Mason 36
- First-half margin
- George Mason by 9.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UMBC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan AbleG | 29 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Carlos VarelaG | 29 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Flash BurtonG | 28 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Riley JacobsF | 23 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Jovan RisticG | 23 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin CeaserG | 23 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| JP NdongF | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Steven HuanF | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Alpha BarryF | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden O'ConnorG | 29 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Baraka OkojieG | 27 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Elijah JonesF | 25 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 3 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-ElaborG | 25 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Emmanuel KangaF | 24 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Makhai ValentineG | 23 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Shane PendergrassF | 15 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Emmett AdairF | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik PresleyG | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |