Who will win UMBC vs Towson?
The model gives Towson a 90% chance to beat UMBC, with a projected score of Towson 79, UMBC 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Towson | |||||
| RoseboroughG · 28 min | 14.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 15+ 47% | |
| WomackG · 27 min | 12.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 15+ 35% | |
| StanfordG · 27 min | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| DoerrG · 26 min | 9.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 10+ 46% | |
 UMBC | |||||
| CeaserG · 27 min | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| AbleG · 26 min | 10.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| BurtonG · 28 min | 9.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 10+ 48% | |
| JacobsF · 24 min | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zion Stanford: UMBC 12%Towson 88%
The white mark is the call with him: Towson 90%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Towson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Towson | ||||
| Zion Stanford | 1.3 | 88% | −2 | 65–78 |
| Jaquan Womack | 1.3 | 88% | −2 | 65–78 |
| Caleb Embeya | 0.8 | 89% | −1 | 65–78 |
| Chike Ndefo | 0.8 | 89% | −1 | 65–78 |
Change is in Towson's win chance, in points. Scores read UMBC, then Towson. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UMBC 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 85-70vs Morgan StCovered −7.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 9W 91-61vs McDaniel
- Nov 5L 80-88at MaristDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 136.5
- Nov 2L 54-82at George Mason
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 77.5 and allowing 75.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Towson 2-2LLWW
- Nov 12W 90-60vs Loyola MDCovered −13.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 9W 66-46vs Long IslandCovered −7.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 5L 57-67at UtahDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2L 70-89at Santa Clara
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 70.8 and allowing 65.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UMBC | Towson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.8 305th | 103.8 185th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.8 305th | 103.6 102nd |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.3% 197th | 50.9% 150th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 76th | 49.1% 76th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 225th | 18.6% 253rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.9% 291st | 35.7% 14th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 223rd | 0.23 311th |
The widest gap: Towson's defense (102nd) against UMBC's offense (305th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UMBC 30, Towson 37
- First-half margin
- Towson by 7.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.9
- Projected second half
- UMBC 35, Towson 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UMBC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 38.2 scored, 33.8 allowed
- Towson, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UMBC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash BurtonG | 28 | 9.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Devin CeaserG | 27 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Aidan AbleG | 26 | 10.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jovan RisticG | 24 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Riley JacobsF | 24 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Carlos VarelaG | 22 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| JP NdongF | 15 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Evan MortonG | 12 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Towson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben RoseboroughG | 28 | 14.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Zion StanfordG | 27 | 11.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Jaquan WomackG | 27 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Christian DoerrG | 26 | 9.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Caleb EmbeyaF | 20 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 47% | |||||
| Jon BartonG | 18 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Chike NdefoG | 17 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 21% | |||||
| Alex AtkinsonF | 14 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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