Who will win Iona vs UMBC?
The model gives UMBC a 51% chance to beat Iona, with a projected score of UMBC 73, Iona 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UMBC | |||||
| CeaserG · 28 min | 14.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 44% | |
| AbleG · 27 min | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| BurtonG · 29 min | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| JacobsF · 25 min | 8.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 39% | |
 Iona | |||||
| VanderhorstG · 33 min | 13.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 15+ 40% | |
| AkametuG · 28 min | 13.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| MitchellF · 26 min | 8.6 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 10+ 38% | |
| OdutayoF · 20 min | 8.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Sadiku Ibine Ayo: Iona 46%UMBC 54%
The white mark is the call with him: UMBC 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UMBC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iona | ||||
| Sadiku Ibine Ayo | 0.7 | 54% | +3 | 72–73 |
Change is in UMBC's win chance, in points. Scores read Iona, then UMBC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Iona | UMBC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.3 312th | 97.8 305th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.4 206th | 112.8 305th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.4 111th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 154th | 50.3% 197th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 187th | 49.1% 76th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.3% 362nd | 18.4% 225th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 200th | 29.9% 291st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 308th | 0.25 223rd |
The widest gap: Iona's defense (206th) against UMBC's offense (305th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Iona 34, UMBC 34
- First-half margin
- UMBC by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.1
- Projected second half
- Iona 38, UMBC 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Iona, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 36.2 allowed
- UMBC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 38.2 scored, 33.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Iona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevon VanderhorstG | 33 | 13.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Kosy AkametuG | 28 | 13.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Keyshawn MitchellF | 26 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Sadiku Ibine AyoF | 24 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Ore OdutayoF | 20 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Aiden DisuF | 18 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Alliou FallF | 16 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Martin KheilG | 15 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
UMBC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flash BurtonG | 29 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Devin CeaserG | 28 | 14.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Aidan AbleG | 27 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Jovan RisticG | 25 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Riley JacobsF | 25 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Carlos VarelaG | 22 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| JP NdongF | 14 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Evan MortonG | 11 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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