Who won Vermont vs Iona?
Final: Iona 56, Vermont 55. Before tip-off the model gave Iona a 64% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.3 points for Iona. Kevon Vanderhorst scored 27 for Iona; Gus Yalden had 17 for Vermont.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Sadiku Ibine Ayo: Vermont 39%Iona 61%
The white mark is the call with him: Iona 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Iona without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iona | ||||
| Sadiku Ibine Ayo | 0.7 | 61% | −3 | 64–67 |
 Vermont | ||||
| Gus Yalden | 1.6 | 68% | +4 | 62–68 |
Change is in Iona's win chance, in points. Scores read Vermont, then Iona. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Vermont | Iona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.3 216th | 97.3 312th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.6 282nd | 109.4 206th |
| Possessions a game | 68.4 356th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 91st | 50.8% 154th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 79th | 50.5% 187th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 216th | 21.3% 362nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 57th | 31.5% 200th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 228th | 0.23 308th |
The widest gap: Vermont's defense (282nd) against Iona's offense (312th), of 365 teams.
First half
Vermont led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 10.4 points and the total by 11.4.
- At halftime
- Vermont 29, Iona 21
- Projected halftime score
- Vermont 30, Iona 32
- First-half margin
- Iona by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Vermont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John BroomG | 36 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
| Will DaviesG | 31 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Gus YaldenF | 30 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Darrel YepdoG | 24 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Momo NkugwaG | 23 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniil GlazkovG | 22 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil BadruG | 18 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah BarnettF | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Iona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevon VanderhorstG | 34 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Kosy AkametuG | 28 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Ore OdutayoF | 25 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn MitchellF | 23 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aiden DisuF | 18 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Sadiku Ibine AyoF | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alliou FallF | 18 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Oliver SassellaG | 16 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Martin KheilG | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |