Who will win Iona vs Hofstra?
The model gives Hofstra a 81% chance to beat Iona, with a projected score of Hofstra 74, Iona 64. The spread is Hofstra −7.5, with an over/under of 134.5. The model makes it Hofstra by 9.9, 2.4 points toward Hofstra, and projects 138 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hofstra | |||||
| ThomasG · 26 min | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 10+ 59% | |
| JeffersonG · 26 min | 10.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| Boyd IIIG · 24 min | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| MooreG · 22 min | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 34% | |
 Iona | |||||
| VanderhorstG · 32 min | 11.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 10+ 61% | |
| AkametuG · 27 min | 11.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| MitchellF · 25 min | 7.6 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 31% | |
| OdutayoF · 20 min | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Imanuel Zorgvol: Iona 21%Hofstra 79%
The white mark is the call with him: Hofstra 81%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Hofstra without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | ||||
| Imanuel Zorgvol | 0.9 | 79% | −2 | 65–74 |
| Joshua DeCady | 0.8 | 79% | −2 | 65–74 |
| Tanner Thomas | 0.8 | 79% | −2 | 65–74 |
| Iona | ||||
| Sadiku Ibine Ayo | 0.7 | 83% | +2 | 64–75 |
Change is in Hofstra's win chance, in points. Scores read Iona, then Hofstra. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Hofstra −7.5 | 134.5 |
| Model | Hofstra −9.9 | 138.5 |
| Gap | 2.4 toward Hofstra | 4 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Iona 2-2WWLL
- Nov 10L 72-78at FordhamCovered +11.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 8L 65-104at St John'sDidn't cover +27.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 5W 72-49vs NJITCovered −9.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 2W 56-55vs Vermont
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 66.2 and allowing 71.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
Hofstra 1-2WLL
- Nov 10L 63-85at Arizona StDidn't cover +18.5 · Over 133.5
- Nov 5L 58-60at PrincetonCovered +2.5 · Under 137.5
- Nov 2W 97-51vs St. Joseph's Long Island
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 72.7 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Iona | Hofstra | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.3 312th | 102.8 202nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.4 206th | 105.5 122nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.8% 154th | 50.6% 179th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.5% 187th | 49.4% 106th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.3% 362nd | 17.8% 151st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.5% 200th | 30.8% 242nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 308th | 0.23 313th |
The widest gap: Hofstra's defense (122nd) against Iona's offense (312th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Iona 30, Hofstra 35
- First-half margin
- Hofstra by 5.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.0
- Projected second half
- Iona 35, Hofstra 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Iona, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 30.0 scored, 36.2 allowed
- Hofstra, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 34.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Iona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevon VanderhorstG | 32 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Kosy AkametuG | 27 | 11.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Keyshawn MitchellF | 25 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Sadiku Ibine AyoF | 23 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ore OdutayoF | 20 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Aiden DisuF | 18 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Alliou FallF | 16 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Martin KheilG | 15 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
Hofstra
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner ThomasG | 26 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Nick JeffersonG | 26 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Trey Boyd IIIG | 24 | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Joshua DeCadyF | 24 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Justin MooreG | 22 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 58% | |||||
| Spence WeweF | 19 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 52% | |||||
| Deywilk TavarezG | 18 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Imanuel ZorgvolF | 15 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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