Who will win Vermont vs Yale?
The model gives Yale a 77% chance to beat Vermont, with a projected score of Yale 77, Vermont 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yale | |||||
| FoxF · 31 min | 17.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 15+ 62% | |
| MullinG · 32 min | 13.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 15+ 40% | |
| BrathwaiteG · 30 min | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 10+ 59% | |
| WallaceG · 23 min | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 32% | |
 Vermont | |||||
| YaldenF · 29 min | 18.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 20+ 39% | |
| DaviesG · 32 min | 14.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 15+ 44% | |
| YepdoG · 25 min | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
| BarnettF · 28 min | 6.4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Riley Fox: Vermont 27%Yale 73%
The white mark is the call with him: Yale 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Yale without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | ||||
| Riley Fox | 1.6 | 73% | −4 | 69–76 |
| Trevor Mullin | 1.0 | 75% | −2 | 69–76 |
| Courtney Wallace | 0.8 | 75% | −2 | 69–77 |
| Jordan Brathwaite | 0.7 | 76% | −1 | 69–77 |
| Vermont | ||||
| Gus Yalden | 1.6 | 81% | +4 | 68–78 |
Change is in Yale's win chance, in points. Scores read Vermont, then Yale. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Vermont | Yale | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.3 216th | 107.4 117th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.6 282nd | 109.5 210th |
| Possessions a game | 68.4 356th | 69.2 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 91st | 49.8% 233rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 79th | 49.2% 87th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.4% 216th | 18.5% 228th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.0% 57th | 33.4% 90th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 228th | 0.24 278th |
The widest gap: Yale's offense (117th) against Vermont's defense (282nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Vermont 32, Yale 36
- First-half margin
- Yale by 4.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.3
- Projected second half
- Vermont 37, Yale 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Vermont, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
- Yale, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Vermont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DaviesG | 32 | 14.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| John BroomG | 31 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 7+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Gus YaldenF | 29 | 18.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Noah BarnettF | 28 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Darrel YepdoG | 25 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Khalil BadruG | 18 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Momo NkugwaG | 16 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Daniil GlazkovG | 12 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor MullinG | 32 | 13.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Riley FoxF | 31 | 17.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jordan BrathwaiteG | 30 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Daniel OgunyemiF | 27 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Jack SullivanF | 25 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Courtney WallaceG | 23 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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