Yale at Northeastern
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Cabot Center. Yale our rank 144 · 1-2; Northeastern our rank 197 · 1-2.
Who will win Yale vs Northeastern?
The model gives Yale a 52% chance to beat Northeastern, with a projected score of Yale 78, Northeastern 77. The spread is Yale −2.5, with an over/under of 154.5. The model makes it Yale by 0.5, 2.0 points toward Northeastern, and projects 155 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | |||||
| FoxF · 32 min | 17.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 20+ 38% | |
| MullinG · 33 min | 14.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 43% | |
| BrathwaiteG · 31 min | 12.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 10+ 62% | |
| WallaceG · 24 min | 8.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 33% | |
| Northeastern | |||||
| KingG · 36 min | 17.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 64% | |
| BondG · 36 min | 16.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 15+ 59% | |
| LoughnaneG · 39 min | 14.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 15+ 45% | |
| GrosberG · 36 min | 13.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 15+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Riley Fox: Yale 46%Northeastern 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Yale 52%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Yale without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale | ||||
| Riley Fox | 1.6 | 46% | −6 | 77–78 |
| Trevor Mullin | 1.0 | 48% | −4 | 77–78 |
| Courtney Wallace | 0.8 | 49% | −3 | 77–78 |
| Jordan Brathwaite | 0.7 | 49% | −3 | 77–78 |
| Northeastern | ||||
| Rashad King | 1.5 | 58% | +6 | 78–77 |
| Ryan Williams | 0.7 | 55% | +3 | 78–77 |
Change is in Yale's win chance, in points. Scores read Yale, then Northeastern. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Yale −2.5 | 154.5 |
| Model | Yale −0.5 | 155.0 |
| Gap | 2 toward Northeastern | 0.5 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Yale | Northeastern | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 107.4 117th | 104.8 166th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.5 210th | 111.2 267th |
| Possessions a game | 69.2 327th | 72.1 59th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.8% 233rd | 52.0% 86th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.2% 87th | 52.1% 295th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 228th | 18.0% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.4% 90th | 28.1% 348th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 278th | 0.28 104th |
The widest gap: Yale's offense (117th) against Northeastern's defense (267th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Yale 36, Northeastern 36
- First-half margin
- Yale by 0.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.7
- Projected second half
- Yale 41, Northeastern 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Yale, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.0 allowed
- Northeastern, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 34.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor MullinG | 33 | 14.0 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Riley FoxF | 32 | 17.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 61% | |||||
| Jordan BrathwaiteG | 31 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Daniel OgunyemiF | 27 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Jack SullivanF | 25 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Courtney WallaceG | 24 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
Northeastern
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike LoughnaneG | 39 | 14.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Louis BondG | 36 | 16.7 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Dorian GrosberG | 36 | 13.5 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Rashad KingG | 36 | 17.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Brayden YoungF | 22 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 55% | |||||
| Ryan WilliamsG | 14 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 40% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Liam KoelschC | 11 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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