Who won Howard vs Yale?
Final: Yale 72, Howard 62. Before tip-off the model gave Yale a 87% chance to win, with a projected margin of 13.8 points for Yale. Riley Fox scored 19 for Yale; Cam Gillus had 16 for Howard.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Riley Fox: Howard 16%Yale 84%
The white mark is the call with him: Yale 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Yale without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Yale | ||||
| Riley Fox | 1.6 | 84% | −3 | 62–75 |
| Trevor Mullin | 1.0 | 85% | −2 | 62–75 |
| Courtney Wallace | 0.8 | 86% | −1 | 62–75 |
| Jordan Brathwaite | 0.7 | 86% | −1 | 62–75 |
 Howard | ||||
| Cedric Taylor III | 1.1 | 89% | +2 | 61–76 |
| James Brown | 0.8 | 88% | +1 | 61–76 |
| Cam Gillus | 0.5 | 88% | +1 | 61–76 |
Change is in Yale's win chance, in points. Scores read Howard, then Yale. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Howard | Yale | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.2 267th | 107.4 117th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.1 154th | 109.5 210th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 69.2 327th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.5% 106th | 49.8% 233rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 98th | 49.2% 87th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 258th | 18.5% 228th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 100th | 33.4% 90th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 302nd | 0.24 278th |
The widest gap: Yale's defense (210th) against Howard's offense (267th), of 365 teams.
First half
Yale led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 4.4 points and the total by 3.7.
- At halftime
- Howard 28, Yale 40
- Projected halftime score
- Howard 28, Yale 36
- First-half margin
- Yale by 7.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Howard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam GillusG | 38 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| James BrownC | 30 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex CottonG | 29 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Cedric Taylor IIIG | 24 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Josiah LawsonF | 24 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Gasper KocevarC | 20 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Drew HarrisF | 13 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah JohnsonG | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Calvin Robins Jr.F | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Yale
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley FoxF | 34 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Trevor MullinG | 34 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| Jordan BrathwaiteG | 33 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Daniel OgunyemiF | 30 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| Jack SullivanF | 25 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| Courtney WallaceG | 20 | 2 | 11 | 4 | 0 |
| Connor MayF | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas OwareC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeannot BasimaG | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |