Who will win Howard vs Davidson?
The model gives Davidson a 90% chance to beat Howard, with a projected score of Davidson 78, Howard 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davidson | |||||
| JanowskiG · 32 min | 17.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 20+ 37% | |
| ScovensF · 31 min | 14.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 45% | |
| BrownG · 29 min | 12.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 15+ 36% | |
| PlatteeuwC · 29 min | 9.9 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 10+ 48% | |
 Howard | |||||
| Taylor IIIG · 33 min | 15.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 15+ 51% | |
| GillusG · 33 min | 11.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 10+ 56% | |
| HarrisF · 24 min | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 10+ 36% | |
| BrownC · 26 min | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Scovens: Howard 15%Davidson 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Davidson 90%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Davidson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | ||||
| Josh Scovens | 2.9 | 85% | −5 | 65–76 |
| Nick Janowski | 2.7 | 86% | −4 | 64–76 |
| Ian Platteeuw | 2.1 | 87% | −3 | 64–77 |
| Sam Brown | 1.3 | 88% | −2 | 64–77 |
| Howard | ||||
| Cedric Taylor III | 1.1 | 92% | +2 | 63–78 |
| James Brown | 0.8 | 92% | +2 | 63–78 |
| Cam Gillus | 0.5 | 91% | +1 | 63–78 |
Change is in Davidson's win chance, in points. Scores read Howard, then Davidson. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Howard | Davidson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.2 267th | 108.2 110th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.1 154th | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.5% 106th | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 98th | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 258th | 17.2% 85th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 100th | 30.6% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 302nd | 0.20 364th |
The widest gap: Davidson's defense (58th) against Howard's offense (267th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Howard 29, Davidson 37
- First-half margin
- Davidson by 8.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.1
- Projected second half
- Howard 34, Davidson 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Howard, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 36.5 scored, 33.5 allowed
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Howard
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam GillusG | 33 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Cedric Taylor IIIG | 33 | 15.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| James BrownC | 26 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Alex CottonG | 25 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Drew HarrisF | 24 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Josiah LawsonF | 18 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Gasper KocevarC | 17 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick JanowskiG | 32 | 17.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Josh ScovensF | 31 | 14.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Sam BrownG | 29 | 12.8 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ian PlatteeuwC | 29 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 9+ reb 54% · 4+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jackson KeithF | 22 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| John Carter Jr.G | 14 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Nick CovalG | 13 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 31% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Tom StoiberF | 10 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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