Who will win Charlotte vs Davidson?
The model gives Davidson a 84% chance to beat Charlotte, with a projected score of Davidson 75, Charlotte 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Davidson | |||||
| JanowskiG · 33 min | 17.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 15+ 63% | |
| ScovensF · 31 min | 14.2 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 15+ 44% | |
| BrownG · 30 min | 12.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 15+ 35% | |
| PlatteeuwC · 29 min | 9.8 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 47% | |
 Charlotte | |||||
| TilleryG · 32 min | 16.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 15+ 56% | |
| FinisterG · 28 min | 9.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| WalzC · 22 min | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 5+ 64% | |
| OgucheG · 18 min | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 55% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Scovens: Charlotte 23%Davidson 77%
The white mark is the call with him: Davidson 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Davidson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | ||||
| Josh Scovens | 2.9 | 77% | −7 | 66–74 |
| Nick Janowski | 2.7 | 77% | −7 | 66–74 |
| Ian Platteeuw | 2.1 | 79% | −5 | 65–74 |
| Sam Brown | 1.3 | 81% | −3 | 65–75 |
| Charlotte | ||||
| Keyshuan Tillery | 1.1 | 86% | +2 | 64–76 |
| Michael Walz | 0.9 | 86% | +2 | 64–76 |
| Chaze Harris | 0.8 | 86% | +2 | 64–76 |
| Dylan Grant | 0.6 | 85% | +1 | 64–76 |
Change is in Davidson's win chance, in points. Scores read Charlotte, then Davidson. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Charlotte 2-1WWL
- Nov 9L 62-68vs Seton HallDidn't cover +4.5 · Under 130.5
- Nov 5W 77-67vs Georgia StDidn't cover −11.5 · Over 143.5
- Nov 2W 78-70at Indiana St
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 72.3 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Charlotte | Davidson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 154th | 108.2 110th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.2 177th | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 68.7 348th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 47th | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 135th | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 329th | 17.2% 85th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 180th | 30.6% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 196th | 0.20 364th |
The widest gap: Davidson's defense (58th) against Charlotte's offense (154th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Charlotte 30, Davidson 36
- First-half margin
- Davidson by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.5
- Projected second half
- Charlotte 35, Davidson 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Charlotte, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 32.0 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Charlotte
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshuan TilleryG | 32 | 16.1 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Dorian FinisterG | 28 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Michael WalzC | 22 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jordi Rodriguez-StegemeijerG | 18 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Dylan GrantF | 18 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
| Miguel AllenF | 18 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Frank OgucheG | 18 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Tyler McKinleyF | 15 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick JanowskiG | 33 | 17.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Josh ScovensF | 31 | 14.2 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Sam BrownG | 30 | 12.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ian PlatteeuwC | 29 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 9+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jackson KeithF | 22 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| John Carter Jr.G | 14 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Nick CovalG | 13 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 30% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Tom StoiberF | 10 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…