Charlotte 78, Indiana St 70
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Hulman Center. Charlotte our rank 152 · 2-1; Indiana St our rank 257 · 1-2.
Who won Charlotte vs Indiana St?
Final: Charlotte 78, Indiana State 70. Before tip-off the model gave Charlotte a 47% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 0.9 points for Indiana State. Keyshuan Tillery scored 29 for Charlotte; Karmani Gregory had 29 for Indiana St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Keyshuan Tillery: Charlotte 42%Indiana St 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Indiana St 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Indiana St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | ||||
| Keyshuan Tillery | 1.1 | 58% | +5 | 66–68 |
| Michael Walz | 0.9 | 57% | +4 | 66–68 |
| Chaze Harris | 0.8 | 57% | +4 | 66–68 |
| Dylan Grant | 0.6 | 56% | +3 | 66–68 |
Change is in Indiana St's win chance, in points. Scores read Charlotte, then Indiana St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Charlotte
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Indiana St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Charlotte | Indiana St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.3 154th | 100.6 255th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.2 177th | 111.0 263rd |
| Possessions a game | 68.7 348th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 47th | 49.1% 284th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.8% 135th | 52.9% 328th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 329th | 17.0% 66th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 180th | 28.0% 352nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 196th | 0.25 241st |
The widest gap: Charlotte's offense (154th) against Indiana St's defense (263rd), of 365 teams.
First half
Indiana St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 2.5 points and the total by 5.9.
- At halftime
- Charlotte 27, Indiana St 30
- Projected halftime score
- Charlotte 31, Indiana St 32
- First-half margin
- Indiana St by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Charlotte
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshuan TilleryG | 32 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Dorian FinisterG | 28 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 |
| Frank OgucheG | 21 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Michael WalzC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan GrantF | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler McKinleyF | 16 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Chaze HarrisG | 16 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jayden FortF | 14 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordi Rodriguez-StegemeijerG | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Indiana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maguire MitchellG | 36 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Karmani GregoryG | 35 | 29 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Jackson CooperF | 28 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alessio CalamitaF | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chance PuryearG | 23 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| EJ McQuillanG | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Duce PaschalG | 16 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Aleksa VlajicF | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kade SpeckmanF | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |