Indiana St v SF Austin
Friday, November 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Elridge Blake Sports and Fitness Center. Indiana St our rank 257 · 1-2; SF Austin our rank 140 · 3-0.
Who will win Indiana St vs SF Austin?
The model gives Stephen F. Austin a 71% chance to beat Indiana State, with a projected score of SF Austin 77, Indiana St 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Austin | |||||
| MakkeG · 21 min | 11.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| ChotikavanicG · 25 min | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 10+ 55% | |
| RussellG · 24 min | 10.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| AlisasF · 18 min | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| Indiana St | |||||
| GregoryG · 34 min | 18.7 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 20+ 42% | |
| MitchellG · 33 min | 13.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 37% | |
| CooperF · 28 min | 10.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 54% | |
| PaschalG · 17 min | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 5+ 52% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Narit Chotikavanic: Indiana St 32%SF Austin 68%
The white mark is the call with him: SF Austin 71%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | SF Austin without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF Austin | ||||
| Narit Chotikavanic | 1.2 | 68% | −3 | 71–77 |
| Gediminas Alisas | 1.0 | 68% | −3 | 71–77 |
| Ashton Simmons | 0.6 | 70% | −1 | 71–77 |
| Edwin Daniel | 0.6 | 70% | −1 | 71–77 |
Change is in SF Austin's win chance, in points. Scores read Indiana St, then SF Austin. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Indiana St 1-2LWL
- Nov 11L 73-82vs MilwaukeeDidn't cover −4.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 6W 69-66at Ball StateCovered +1.5 · Under 147.5
- Nov 2L 70-78vs Charlotte
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 70.7 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
SF Austin 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 76-71at Abilene ChrstnDidn't cover −6.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 6W 89-32vs Texas Lutheran
- Nov 2W 120-61vs Lyon
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.0 and allowing 54.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Indiana St | SF Austin | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.6 255th | 105.8 146th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.0 263rd | 107.5 163rd |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 69.7 292nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 284th | 51.2% 130th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.9% 328th | 49.3% 91st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 66th | 17.0% 68th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.0% 352nd | 31.8% 178th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 241st | 0.27 148th |
The widest gap: SF Austin's offense (146th) against Indiana St's defense (263rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Indiana St 33, SF Austin 37
- First-half margin
- SF Austin by 3.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.5
- Projected second half
- Indiana St 38, SF Austin 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Indiana St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 36.0 allowed
- SF Austin, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 24.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Indiana St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karmani GregoryG | 34 | 18.7 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 4+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Maguire MitchellG | 33 | 13.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jackson CooperF | 28 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Chance PuryearG | 23 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| EJ McQuillanG | 19 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Alessio CalamitaF | 18 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 22% | |||||
| Duce PaschalG | 17 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Meechie WhiteG | 14 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
SF Austin
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narit ChotikavanicG | 25 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| MJ RussellG | 24 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Christian GreenG | 24 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Erik MakkeG | 21 | 11.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Edwin DanielF | 20 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Gediminas AlisasF | 18 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Courterius ScottG | 16 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ashton SimmonsG | 16 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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