Who will win Brown vs Vermont?
The model gives Vermont a 61% chance to beat Brown, with a projected score of Vermont 71, Brown 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Vermont | |||||
| YaldenF · 30 min | 19.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 20+ 44% | |
| DaviesG · 33 min | 15.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 15+ 49% | |
| YepdoG · 25 min | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| BarnettF · 29 min | 6.7 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 5+ 62% | |
 Brown | |||||
| JenkinsG · 30 min | 11.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 10+ 56% | |
| LoughlinG · 30 min | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 10+ 46% | |
| DaboF · 28 min | 9.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 45% | |
| LanghamG · 16 min | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Gus Yalden: Brown 44%Vermont 56%
The white mark is the call with him: Vermont 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Vermont without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermont | ||||
| Gus Yalden | 1.6 | 56% | −5 | 69–70 |
| Brown | ||||
| N'famara Dabo | 0.5 | 63% | +2 | 68–71 |
Change is in Vermont's win chance, in points. Scores read Brown, then Vermont. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Brown 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 81-86vs CanisiusDidn't cover −12.5 · Over 137.5
- Nov 8W 65-55at LehighCovered +5.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 6L 67-72vs Boston UDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2L 55-59vs New Hampshire
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 67.0 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Brown | Vermont | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.0 318th | 102.3 216th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.3 157th | 111.6 282nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.1 261st | 68.4 356th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 191st | 51.8% 91st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.4% 304th | 49.2% 79th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.5% 354th | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.7% 254th | 34.0% 57th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.20 365th | 0.25 228th |
The widest gap: Brown's defense (157th) against Vermont's offense (216th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Brown 32, Vermont 33
- First-half margin
- Vermont by 1.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.2
- Projected second half
- Brown 36, Vermont 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Brown, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 30.2 scored, 30.0 allowed
- Vermont, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Brown
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady LoughlinG | 30 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jeremiah JenkinsG | 30 | 11.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| N'famara DaboF | 28 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Timmy BollinG | 22 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Jerrell Barron Jr.G | 16 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Isaiah LanghamG | 16 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Rykan WooG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Adrian UchidiunoG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 73% to play · 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 33% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Vermont
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will DaviesG | 33 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| John BroomG | 32 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 7+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Gus YaldenF | 30 | 19.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 44% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Noah BarnettF | 29 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 49% | |||||
| Darrel YepdoG | 25 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Khalil BadruG | 18 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Momo NkugwaG | 16 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Daniil GlazkovG | 12 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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