Who will win Michigan vs Villanova?
The model gives Michigan a 67% chance to beat Villanova, with a projected score of Michigan 79, Villanova 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan | |||||
| EstrellaF · 29 min | 16.4 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 15+ 57% | |
| McKenneyG · 35 min | 16.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 15+ 55% | |
| Gayle Jr.G · 28 min | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 60% | |
| CadeauG · 32 min | 11.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 10+ 56% | |
 Villanova | |||||
| RoyalF · 29 min | 13.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 15+ 42% | |
| FiegenG · 28 min | 13.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 15+ 40% | |
| SuigoC · 28 min | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 15+ 38% | |
| PerkinsG · 30 min | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey McKenney: Michigan 49%Villanova 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Michigan 67%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | ||||
| Trey McKenney | 5.3 | 49% | −18 | 77–77 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 5.0 | 50% | −17 | 77–77 |
| J.P. Estrella | 4.9 | 51% | −16 | 77–77 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 4.4 | 52% | −15 | 77–77 |
| Villanova | ||||
| Tyler Perkins | 3.8 | 79% | +12 | 81–72 |
| Devin Royal | 3.6 | 78% | +11 | 81–73 |
| Jake Fiegen | 3.1 | 77% | +10 | 81–73 |
| Elijah Crawford | 2.8 | 76% | +9 | 81–73 |
Change is in Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Michigan, then Villanova. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Michigan 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 84-70vs MarquetteCovered −3.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6L 77-85vs UConnDidn't cover +7.5 · Over 142.5
- Nov 2W 84-68vs Oakland
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.7 and allowing 74.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Villanova 2-1LWW
- Nov 10W 80-59vs La SalleCovered −20.5 · Under 157.5
- Nov 6W 95-66vs Holy CrossDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 1L 72-74vs Notre Dame
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.3 and allowing 66.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Michigan | Villanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 120.4 10th | 115.0 51st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 92.0 10th | 98.3 41st |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 26th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 220th | 52.0% 83rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.5% 46th | 46.8% 11th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 117th | 18.1% 185th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 130th | 32.0% 163rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 245th | 0.22 346th |
The widest gap: Michigan's defense (10th) against Villanova's offense (51st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Michigan 37, Villanova 35
- First-half margin
- Michigan by 2.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.1
- Projected second half
- Michigan 42, Villanova 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 35.3 allowed
- Villanova, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 29.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McKenneyG | 35 | 16.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Elliot CadeauG | 32 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 57% · 6+ ast 54% | |||||
| J.P. EstrellaF | 29 | 16.4 | 8.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr.G | 28 | 11.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Moustapha ThiamC | 24 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 7+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Quinn CostelloF | 21 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ricky LiburdG | 15 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Oscar GoodmanF | 10 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Villanova
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler PerkinsG | 30 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Devin RoyalF | 29 | 13.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jake FiegenG | 28 | 13.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Luigi SuigoC | 28 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 9+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Elijah CrawfordG | 27 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Adam OumiddochG | 18 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Darryl Simmons IIG | 17 | 7.3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Kwame Evans Jr.F | 14 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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