Who won Oakland vs Michigan?
Final: Michigan 84, Oakland 68. Before tip-off the model gave Michigan a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 34.2 points for Michigan. Trey McKenney scored 17 for Michigan; Chris Fields Jr. had 18 for Oakland.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Trey McKenney: Oakland 1%Michigan 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Michigan >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Michigan | ||||
| Trey McKenney | 5.3 | 99% | −1 | 57–86 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 5.0 | 99% | −1 | 57–86 |
| J.P. Estrella | 4.9 | 99% | −1 | 57–86 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 4.4 | 99% | −1 | 57–87 |
 Oakland | ||||
| Chris Fields Jr. | 1.1 | >99% | 0 | 54–89 |
Change is in Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read Oakland, then Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Oakland
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Michigan
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oakland | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 120.4 10th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.8 320th | 92.0 10th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.1% 211th | 50.0% 220th |
| Opponents' shooting | 55.4% 362nd | 48.5% 46th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 300th | 17.5% 117th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 37th | 32.6% 130th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 53rd | 0.25 245th |
The widest gap: Michigan's offense (10th) against Oakland's defense (320th), of 365 teams.
First half
Michigan led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.8 points and the total by 15.8.
- At halftime
- Oakland 36, Michigan 47
- Projected halftime score
- Oakland 24, Michigan 43
- First-half margin
- Michigan by 18.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Oakland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Fields Jr.F | 34 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0 |
| Nassim MashhourG | 32 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Warren Marshall IVG | 28 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryder BradleyG | 26 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 2 |
| Belal El ShakeryF | 22 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| William KassiG | 18 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| RJ TaylorG | 17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Hamoudy MashhourG | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate AhnerF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McKenneyG | 35 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Elliot CadeauG | 34 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr.G | 25 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Oscar GoodmanF | 22 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| J.P. EstrellaF | 21 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 0 |
| Quinn CostelloF | 21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Jalen ReedF | 17 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Ricky LiburdG | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kenny NolandG | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |