William & Mary at Michigan
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Crisler Center. William & Mary our rank 142 · 2-1; Michigan AP 20, our rank 7 · 2-1.
Who will win William & Mary vs Michigan?
The model gives Michigan a >99% chance to beat William & Mary, with a projected score of Michigan 97, William & Mary 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | |||||
| EstrellaF · 27 min | 18.1 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 20+ 39% | |
| McKenneyG · 31 min | 17.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 15+ 62% | |
| Gayle Jr.G · 26 min | 13.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 15+ 37% | |
| CadeauG · 29 min | 12.0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 10+ 62% | |
| William & Mary | |||||
| Carter Jr.F · 22 min | 10.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 10+ 49% | |
| BaldwinG · 22 min | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 5+ 69% | |
| WardG · 20 min | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 5+ 60% | |
| McIntoshG · 20 min | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Trey McKenney: William & Mary 2%Michigan 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Michigan >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Michigan without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | ||||
| Trey McKenney | 5.3 | 98% | −2 | 71–95 |
| Elliot Cadeau | 5.0 | 98% | −2 | 70–95 |
| J.P. Estrella | 4.9 | 98% | −2 | 70–95 |
| Roddy Gayle Jr. | 4.4 | 99% | −1 | 70–95 |
| William & Mary | ||||
| Josh Baldwin | 1.0 | >99% | 0 | 67–98 |
| Stas Sivka | 0.7 | >99% | 0 | 68–98 |
| Brian Carter Jr. | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 68–98 |
| Nilavan Daniels | 0.6 | >99% | 0 | 68–98 |
Change is in Michigan's win chance, in points. Scores read William & Mary, then Michigan. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
William & Mary 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 90-95at FAUCovered +5.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 8W 104-73vs Norfolk StCovered −10.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 80-66vs Bridgewater
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 91.3 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| William & Mary | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.3 97th | 120.4 10th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 270th | 92.0 10th |
| Possessions a game | 73.0 22nd | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 28th | 50.0% 220th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 254th | 48.5% 46th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 15.6% 5th | 17.5% 117th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 115th | 32.6% 130th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 261st | 0.25 245th |
The widest gap: Michigan's offense (10th) against William & Mary's defense (270th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- William & Mary 31, Michigan 47
- First-half margin
- Michigan by 16.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.5
- Projected second half
- William & Mary 37, Michigan 51
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- William & Mary, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.3 scored, 34.7 allowed
- Michigan, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
William & Mary
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Carter Jr.F | 22 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Josh BaldwinG | 22 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jesse McIntoshG | 20 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Gavin WardG | 20 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tre BlassingameG | 19 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Ethan ConneryG | 19 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| ZZ ClarkG | 19 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| John Roland Jr.F | 18 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Michigan
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McKenneyG | 31 | 17.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Elliot CadeauG | 29 | 12.0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ ast 56% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| J.P. EstrellaF | 27 | 18.1 | 9.4 | 2.0 | 0.3 |
| 20+ pts 39% · 10+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Roddy Gayle Jr.G | 26 | 13.0 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Moustapha ThiamC | 23 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Quinn CostelloF | 20 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Ricky LiburdG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Oscar GoodmanF | 12 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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