Bowling Green at William & Mary
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Kaplan Arena. Bowling Green our rank 180 · 3-0; William & Mary our rank 142 · 2-1.
Who will win Bowling Green vs William & Mary?
The model gives William & Mary a 68% chance to beat Bowling Green, with a projected score of William & Mary 85, Bowling Green 80.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William & Mary | |||||
| Carter Jr.F · 23 min | 12.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 15+ 35% | |
| BaldwinG · 22 min | 9.2 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| WardG · 20 min | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 33% | |
| McIntoshG · 20 min | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 10+ 31% | |
| Bowling Green | |||||
| HowellG · 33 min | 15.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 15+ 51% | |
| ShackelfordG · 31 min | 15.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| LeachG · 32 min | 14.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| BeckfordG · 26 min | 12.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 10+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Baldwin: Bowling Green 35%William & Mary 65%
The white mark is the call with him: William & Mary 68%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | William & Mary without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William & Mary | ||||
| Josh Baldwin | 1.0 | 65% | −3 | 80–85 |
| Stas Sivka | 0.7 | 66% | −2 | 80–85 |
| Brian Carter Jr. | 0.6 | 66% | −2 | 80–85 |
| Nilavan Daniels | 0.6 | 67% | −1 | 80–85 |
| Bowling Green | ||||
| Tristan Beckford | 1.4 | 73% | +5 | 79–86 |
| Josiah Shackelford | 1.0 | 71% | +3 | 79–86 |
Change is in William & Mary's win chance, in points. Scores read Bowling Green, then William & Mary. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Bowling Green 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 88-76vs NiagaraDidn't cover −14.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 9W 95-79vs Cleveland StCovered −13.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 2W 76-73at Georgia St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 86.3 and allowing 76.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
William & Mary 2-1WWL
- Nov 11L 90-95at FAUCovered +5.5 · Over 165.5
- Nov 8W 104-73vs Norfolk StCovered −10.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 80-66vs Bridgewater
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 91.3 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bowling Green | William & Mary | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.2 140th | 109.3 97th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 272nd | 111.3 270th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 73.0 22nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.3% 10th | 53.3% 28th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.3% 339th | 51.5% 254th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 237th | 15.6% 5th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 48th | 32.8% 115th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 258th | 0.25 261st |
The widest gap: William & Mary's offense (97th) against Bowling Green's defense (272nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Bowling Green 37, William & Mary 40
- First-half margin
- William & Mary by 3.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 77.4
- Projected second half
- Bowling Green 43, William & Mary 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 87.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Bowling Green, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
- William & Mary, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 44.3 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Bowling Green
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach HowellG | 33 | 15.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Makhi LeachG | 32 | 14.3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Josiah ShackelfordG | 31 | 15.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Preston SquireF | 27 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Tristan BeckfordG | 26 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Juan Cranford Jr.G | 19 | 8.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Trey SimmonsG | 12 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 22% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
William & Mary
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Carter Jr.F | 23 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Josh BaldwinG | 22 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jesse McIntoshG | 20 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Gavin WardG | 20 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| ZZ ClarkG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Tre BlassingameG | 19 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ethan ConneryG | 19 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Stas SivkaF | 17 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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