Bowling Green 76, Georgia St 73
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at GSU Convocation Center. Bowling Green our rank 180 · 3-0; Georgia St our rank 278 · 1-3.
Who won Bowling Green vs Georgia St?
Final: Bowling Green 76, Georgia State 73. Before tip-off the model gave Bowling Green a 60% chance to win, with a projected margin of 3.1 points for Bowling Green. Zach Howell scored 28 for Bowling Green; Jacob Meyer had 25 for Georgia St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Tristan Beckford: Bowling Green 55%Georgia St 45%
The white mark is the call with him: Bowling Green 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Bowling Green without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | ||||
| Tristan Beckford | 1.4 | 55% | −5 | 69–67 |
| Josiah Shackelford | 1.0 | 57% | −3 | 69–67 |
| Georgia St | ||||
| Jacolb Fredson-Cole | 0.9 | 63% | +3 | 70–66 |
Change is in Bowling Green's win chance, in points. Scores read Bowling Green, then Georgia St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…
Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Bowling Green
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Georgia St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Bowling Green | Georgia St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.2 140th | 100.5 259th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 272nd | 112.5 299th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.3% 10th | 51.3% 122nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.3% 339th | 51.1% 233rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 237th | 17.3% 92nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 48th | 31.1% 227th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 258th | 0.23 333rd |
The widest gap: Bowling Green's offense (140th) against Georgia St's defense (299th), of 365 teams.
First half
It was tied at the half. The margin was off by 1.7 points and the total by 4.3.
- At halftime
- Bowling Green 34, Georgia St 34
- Projected halftime score
- Bowling Green 33, Georgia St 31
- First-half margin
- Bowling Green by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Bowling Green
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach HowellG | 39 | 28 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| Josiah ShackelfordG | 35 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Makhi LeachG | 32 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Tristan BeckfordG | 27 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Preston SquireF | 25 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Juan Cranford Jr.G | 17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Camden KarelF | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey SimmonsG | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christ EssandokoF | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Georgia St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David ThomasG | 40 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Jaden JacksonG | 39 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Jacob MeyerG | 39 | 25 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| Jacolb Fredson-ColeF | 29 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Chris JonesG | 23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Mason NicholsonC | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonas SirtautasF | 7 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Orion WilsonF | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |