N Illinois at Bowling Green
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Stroh Center. N Illinois our rank 336 · 2-2; Bowling Green our rank 180 · 3-0.
Who will win N Illinois vs Bowling Green?
The model gives Bowling Green a 86% chance to beat Northern Illinois, with a projected score of Bowling Green 84, N Illinois 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | |||||
| HowellG · 32 min | 15.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 15+ 54% | |
| ShackelfordG · 30 min | 15.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 53% | |
| LeachG · 31 min | 14.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 15+ 47% | |
| BeckfordG · 25 min | 12.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| N Illinois | |||||
| Douglas Jr.G · 27 min | 14.4 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 15+ 45% | |
| WeisbrodG · 29 min | 12.5 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| PoliteG · 25 min | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| IvanauskasF · 17 min | 7.1 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 5+ 65% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tristan Beckford: N Illinois 17%Bowling Green 83%
The white mark is the call with him: Bowling Green 86%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Bowling Green without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | ||||
| Tristan Beckford | 1.4 | 83% | −3 | 73–84 |
| Josiah Shackelford | 1.0 | 84% | −2 | 73–84 |
Change is in Bowling Green's win chance, in points. Scores read N Illinois, then Bowling Green. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N Illinois 2-2LLWW
- Nov 11W 82-43vs Clarke
- Nov 7W 81-76at DaytonCovered +19.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 5L 75-94at TulsaDidn't cover +14.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2L 87-89vs Grambling
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 81.2 and allowing 75.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Bowling Green 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 88-76vs NiagaraDidn't cover −14.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 9W 95-79vs Cleveland StCovered −13.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 2W 76-73at Georgia St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 86.3 and allowing 76.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Illinois | Bowling Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 272nd | 106.2 140th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.1 357th | 111.3 272nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 51st | 54.3% 10th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.8% 322nd | 53.3% 339th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 102nd | 18.5% 237th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.2% 273rd | 34.2% 48th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 59th | 0.25 258th |
The widest gap: Bowling Green's offense (140th) against N Illinois's defense (357th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Illinois 33, Bowling Green 40
- First-half margin
- Bowling Green by 6.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.5
- Projected second half
- N Illinois 39, Bowling Green 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Illinois, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 35.2 scored, 38.0 allowed
- Bowling Green, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Illinois
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max WeisbrodG | 29 | 12.5 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ threes 45% | |||||
| David Douglas Jr.G | 27 | 14.4 | 4.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Trevor PoliteG | 25 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Brayden GrossF | 21 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Mykolas IvanauskasF | 17 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 56% | |||||
| Bennett BasichG | 17 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Colin HardrickG | 16 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Nino Carter-SmithG | 15 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Bowling Green
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach HowellG | 32 | 15.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Makhi LeachG | 31 | 14.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Josiah ShackelfordG | 30 | 15.6 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Preston SquireF | 26 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Tristan BeckfordG | 25 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Juan Cranford Jr.G | 19 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Trey SimmonsG | 12 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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