Who will win UC Irvine vs San Diego?
The model gives UC Irvine a 77% chance to beat San Diego, with a projected score of UC Irvine 80, San Diego 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 UC Irvine | |||||
| Jester Jr.G · 21 min | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 10+ 60% | |
| CooperG · 25 min | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 10+ 52% | |
| IsaacG · 24 min | 9.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| JohnsonG · 20 min | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 10+ 38% | |
 San Diego | |||||
| HillG · 25 min | 14.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 15+ 43% | |
| StromerG · 32 min | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| Worthy Jr.G · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| HillF · 26 min | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nils Cooper: UC Irvine 71%San Diego 29%
The white mark is the call with him: UC Irvine 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UC Irvine without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UC Irvine | ||||
| Nils Cooper | 1.9 | 71% | −6 | 79–72 |
| Olivier Rioux | 1.6 | 72% | −5 | 79–72 |
| Jovan Jester Jr. | 1.5 | 73% | −4 | 79–72 |
| Tama Isaac | 0.9 | 74% | −3 | 79–72 |
| San Diego | ||||
| Davion Hill | 0.8 | 79% | +2 | 80–71 |
| Sekou Konneh | 0.8 | 79% | +2 | 80–71 |
| Dusty Stromer | 0.7 | 78% | +1 | 80–71 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn | 0.6 | 78% | +1 | 80–71 |
Change is in UC Irvine's win chance, in points. Scores read UC Irvine, then San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UC Irvine 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 90-40vs Lincoln (CA)
- Nov 7W 91-79vs San José StCovered −8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 3W 92-66vs Chapman
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.0 and allowing 61.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
San Diego 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 75-83at ColoradoCovered +12.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 6W 96-90vs Tarleton StDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 2W 79-62vs Biola
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 78.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC Irvine | San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.4 135th | 104.2 178th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.0 83rd | 110.6 244th |
| Possessions a game | 71.8 79th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 186th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 247th | 53.6% 347th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.7% 255th | 17.2% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.2% 46th | 33.2% 96th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 150th | 0.28 84th |
The widest gap: UC Irvine's offense (135th) against San Diego's defense (244th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UC Irvine 38, San Diego 33
- First-half margin
- UC Irvine by 4.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- UC Irvine 42, San Diego 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UC Irvine, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.0 scored, 26.0 allowed
- San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UC Irvine
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils CooperG | 25 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Tama IsaacG | 24 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Jovan Jester Jr.G | 21 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Josiah JohnsonG | 20 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Olivier RiouxC | 18 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 46% | |||||
| Langston RedfieldG | 16 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Nes EmenekeC | 14 | 2.0 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
| Luke IsaakG | 13 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusty StromerG | 32 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jevon HillF | 26 | 9.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Davion HillG | 25 | 14.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Marqui Worthy Jr.G | 25 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 41% | |||||
| Jose Roberto TanchynF | 22 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Sekou KonnehF | 20 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 45% | |||||
| Chace HolleyG | 19 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Terry McMorrisF | 18 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 21% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…