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Probable Stats / Men's / Saturday, November 21

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New Mexico at Wichita St

Saturday, November 21, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Charles Koch Arena. New Mexico our rank 48 · 3-0; Wichita St our rank 91 · 2-1.

Who will win New Mexico vs Wichita St?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives New Mexico a 65% chance to beat Wichita State, with a projected score of New Mexico 81, Wichita St 77.

To winNew Mexico 65%Wichita St 35%
Projected score81–77New Mexico, then Wichita St
Margin4.3New Mexico · no line posted
Total157.4no line posted
First half38–36New Mexico ahead 58%
New Mexico by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Wichita St by 30Model: New Mexico by 4.3New Mexico by 30by 10by 10Wichita St by 30Model: New Mexico by 4.3

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
New Mexico
HallG · 29 min23.93.81.425+ 44%
TenetteG · 27 min14.42.22.515+ 45%
MayesG · 25 min12.55.12.110+ 65%
Vahlberg FasasiF · 26 min11.22.91.910+ 56%
Wichita St
GilesG · 26 min14.11.72.415+ 44%
BergC · 20 min12.18.20.710+ 63%
BattieF · 24 min10.15.30.910+ 49%
FrisonG · 21 min9.12.03.510+ 42%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Jake Hall: New Mexico 52%Wichita St 48%

The white mark is the call with him: New Mexico 65%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsNew Mexico without himChangeProjected score
New Mexico
Jake Hall3.952%−1379–78
Uriah Tenette3.055%−1079–78
Hudson Mayes2.855%−1079–78
Chris Howell2.556%−980–78
Wichita St
Dillon Battie2.573%+882–75
Kenyon Giles2.171%+682–75
Jahari Long1.469%+482–76
Emmanuel Okorafor1.369%+481–76

Change is in New Mexico's win chance, in points. Scores read New Mexico, then Wichita St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    New Mexico 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 94-69vs Little RockCovered −23.5 · Over 157.5
    2. Nov 7W 94-65vs N ArizonaCovered −28.5 · Over 157.5
    3. Nov 2W 100-60vs Utah Tech
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 96.0 and allowing 64.7
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    Wichita St 2-1WLW

    1. Nov 11W 113-60vs Friends
    2. Nov 8L 86-93vs USCDidn't cover +6.5 · Over 155.5
    3. Nov 4W 79-67vs CSU Northridge
    Last 3
    2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 73.3
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    New MexicoWichita St
    Points scored per 100 possessions116.0 41st110.9 85th
    Points allowed per 10099.8 53rd103.2 98th
    Possessions a game72.0 63rd71.3 121st
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)52.4% 64th49.7% 242nd
    Opponents' shooting49.8% 137th48.7% 50th
    Turnovers, share of possessions16.1% 13th17.3% 97th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses31.4% 201st31.0% 230th
    Free throws per shot0.26 179th0.28 96th

    The widest gap: New Mexico's offense (41st) against Wichita St's defense (98th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    New Mexico 38, Wichita St 36
    First-half margin
    New Mexico by 2.4
    First-half points, both teams
    73.8
    Projected second half
    New Mexico 43, Wichita St 41
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.5
    Tied at the half
    4%
    New Mexico, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 43.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
    Wichita St, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 37.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    New Mexico

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jake HallG2923.93.81.43.3
    25+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ threes 58%
    Uriah TenetteG2714.42.22.51.8
    15+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 50%
    Tunde Vahlberg FasasiF2611.22.91.92.1
    10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 53%
    Hudson MayesG2512.55.12.10.2
    10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 58%
    Chris HowellG254.53.53.90.4
    5+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 53%
    Dax HallG236.82.72.30.5
    5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 40%
    Benjamin SchuchF143.53.91.10.3
    5+ pts 30% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 29%
    Federico GraniF144.73.80.50.2
    5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 15%

    Wichita St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Kenyon GilesG2614.11.72.42.2
    15+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 57%
    Jahari LongG267.32.72.01.0
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 57%
    Dillon BattieF2410.15.30.90.7
    10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47%
    Bryce HeardG227.33.00.50.9
    5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55%
    Jordan FrisonG219.12.03.50.5
    10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 45%
    William BergC2012.18.20.70.0
    48% to play · 10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 16%
    Desmeon JonesG165.31.71.00.5
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40%
    TJ WilliamsG135.33.20.90.2
    78% to play · 5+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 21%

    Missed the last game: William Berg (24 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Sat, Nov 21

    All games
    1. 2 PMprojected 78-73Fordham vs Portland, men's: game page
    2. 3 PMprojected 76-78St Thomas at Milwaukee, men's: game page
    3. 4 PMprojected 73-74C Arkansas at Jacksonville, men's: game page
    4. 4 PMprojected 73-76South Florida at George Mason, men's: game page
    5. 4 PMprojected 75-75Penn at La Salle, men's: game page
    6. 7 PMprojected 79-74Michigan at Villanova, men's: game page
    New Mexico next: at Santa Clara, Sat, Nov 14 · 56%Wichita St next: vs Austin Peay, Sat, Nov 14 · 89%New Mexico: schedule and oddsWichita St: schedule and odds