Who will win Penn vs La Salle?
The model gives La Salle a 51% chance to beat Pennsylvania, with a projected score of La Salle 75, Penn 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 La Salle | |||||
| BurtonG · 26 min | 12.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| DockeryG · 19 min | 9.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| FinkleyF · 24 min | 8.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 39% | |
| BookerG · 22 min | 8.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 36% | |
 Penn | |||||
| PowerF · 37 min | 19.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 20+ 45% | |
| ZanoniG · 36 min | 14.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 47% | |
| MohammedG · 28 min | 12.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| LevineG · 27 min | 8.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 10+ 38% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rob Dockery: Penn 53%La Salle 47%
The white mark is the call with him: La Salle 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | La Salle without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Salle | ||||
| Rob Dockery | 1.0 | 47% | −4 | 76–75 |
| Kam Burton | 0.9 | 47% | −4 | 75–75 |
| Penn | ||||
| TJ Power | 1.6 | 57% | +6 | 74–76 |
| Sir Mohammed | 1.0 | 55% | +4 | 75–76 |
| AJ Levine | 0.8 | 54% | +3 | 75–76 |
Change is in La Salle's win chance, in points. Scores read Penn, then La Salle. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Penn | La Salle | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.0 223rd | 102.8 203rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.0 116th | 109.3 203rd |
| Possessions a game | 72.8 26th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 258th | 48.5% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.5% 253rd | 52.3% 301st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 38th | 18.6% 249th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 283rd | 34.0% 62nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 232nd | 0.25 227th |
The widest gap: Penn's defense (116th) against La Salle's offense (203rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Penn 35, La Salle 35
- First-half margin
- La Salle by 0.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.5
- Projected second half
- Penn 40, La Salle 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Penn, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 29.7 scored, 40.0 allowed
- La Salle, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 38.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Penn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ PowerF | 37 | 19.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| 20+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 53% · 3+ threes 53% | |||||
| Michael ZanoniG | 36 | 14.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 61% | |||||
| Sir MohammedG | 28 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| AJ LevineG | 27 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 44% · 5+ ast 42% | |||||
| Lucas LuethF | 26 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Augustus GerhartF | 17 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Dalton ScantleburyF | 12 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 51% | |||||
La Salle
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden JohnsonG | 29 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 4.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kam BurtonG | 26 | 12.0 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 3.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 51% · 4+ threes 42% | |||||
| Anthony FinkleyF | 24 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Noah CollierF | 23 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Devin BookerG | 22 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Rob DockeryG | 19 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Trey MossG | 18 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| RJ SmithG | 17 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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