South Florida at George Mason
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at EagleBank Arena. South Florida our rank 94 · 1-2; George Mason our rank 96 · 3-0.
Who will win South Florida vs George Mason?
The model gives George Mason a 60% chance to beat South Florida, with a projected score of George Mason 76, South Florida 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | |||||
| OkojieG · 32 min | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| ValentineG · 26 min | 10.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| JonesF · 25 min | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| O'ConnorG · 30 min | 9.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| South Florida | |||||
| WilsonG · 37 min | 15.7 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 15+ 53% | |
| Davis Jr.G · 33 min | 14.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 15+ 46% | |
| JohnsonF · 26 min | 12.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| HighF · 25 min | 11.5 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Emmanuel Kanga: South Florida 48%George Mason 52%
The white mark is the call with him: George Mason 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | George Mason without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Mason | ||||
| Emmanuel Kanga | 2.4 | 52% | −8 | 75–75 |
| Baraka Okojie | 2.2 | 53% | −7 | 74–75 |
| Efeosa Oliogu-Elabor | 1.5 | 55% | −5 | 74–76 |
| Elijah Jones | 1.4 | 55% | −5 | 74–76 |
| South Florida | ||||
| Zayden High | 2.4 | 68% | +8 | 72–77 |
| Sonny Wilson | 2.2 | 68% | +8 | 72–77 |
| Garrett Johnson | 1.7 | 66% | +6 | 72–77 |
| Josh Omojafo | 1.7 | 66% | +6 | 72–77 |
Change is in George Mason's win chance, in points. Scores read South Florida, then George Mason. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Florida 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 80-83vs Saint Joseph'sDidn't cover −6.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 80-82at DePaulCovered +6.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 98-71vs Charleston So
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 86.0 and allowing 78.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
George Mason 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 76-68vs Kansas CityDidn't cover −15.5 · Over 141.5
- Nov 6W 68-51vs Coppin StDidn't cover −28.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 2W 82-54vs UMBC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 75.3 and allowing 57.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Florida | George Mason | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.6 69th | 106.4 134th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.4 120th | 99.8 55th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 29th | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 55th | 49.7% 241st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 143rd | 47.9% 34th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 114th | 18.0% 175th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 74th | 31.8% 174th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 218th | 0.28 88th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Florida 34, George Mason 36
- First-half margin
- George Mason by 1.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- South Florida 39, George Mason 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 40.7 allowed
- George Mason, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 27.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny WilsonG | 37 | 15.7 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 48% · 6+ ast 47% | |||||
| Chris Davis Jr.G | 33 | 14.5 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mike JamesG | 30 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Garrett JohnsonF | 26 | 12.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Zayden HighF | 25 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Andrej ShoshkikjG | 21 | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Josh OmojafoG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
George Mason
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baraka OkojieG | 32 | 13.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Brayden O'ConnorG | 30 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Makhai ValentineG | 26 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Emmanuel KangaF | 25 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Elijah JonesF | 25 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 38% | |||||
| Efeosa Oliogu-ElaborG | 25 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 41% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Shane PendergrassF | 18 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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