South Florida 80, Saint Joseph's 83
Final. Wednesday, November 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Alumni Hall (Navy). South Florida our rank 94 · 1-2; Saint Joseph's our rank 120 · 3-0.
Who won South Florida vs Saint Joseph's?
Final: Saint Joseph's 83, South Florida 80. Before tip-off the model gave Saint Joseph's a 34% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 4.6 points for South Florida. The spread was South Florida −6.5: Saint Joseph's covered, and the 163 points went over an over/under of 148.5. BJ Ranson scored 21 for Saint Joseph's; Chris Davis Jr. had 16 for South Florida.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | |||||
| Wilson · 35 min | 17.2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 15+ 62% | |
| Johnson · 27 min | 15.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 49% | |
| Davis Jr. · 31 min | 14.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 15+ 47% | |
| High · 24 min | 11.6 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 60% | |
| Saint Joseph's | |||||
| Glover-Toscano · 36 min | 18.0 | 5.7 | 0.9 | 20+ 39% | |
| Myers · 32 min | 14.2 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| Ranson · 26 min | 11.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 10+ 56% | |
| Williford · 34 min | 7.6 | 6.1 | 1.4 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zayden High: South Florida 58%Saint Joseph's 42%
The white mark is the call with him: South Florida 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | ||||
| Zayden High | 2.4 | 58% | −8 | 77–75 |
| Sonny Wilson | 2.2 | 58% | −8 | 77–75 |
| Garrett Johnson | 1.7 | 60% | −6 | 78–75 |
| Josh Omojafo | 1.7 | 60% | −6 | 78–75 |
| Saint Joseph's | ||||
| Sean Logan | 1.9 | 72% | +6 | 79–73 |
| Jaiden Glover-Toscano | 1.9 | 71% | +5 | 79–73 |
| Khaafiq Myers | 1.5 | 70% | +4 | 79–73 |
| Austin Williford | 1.1 | 69% | +3 | 79–73 |
Change is in South Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read South Florida, then Saint Joseph's. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | South Florida −6.5 | 148.5 |
| Model | South Florida −4.6 | 152.4 |
| Final | Saint Joseph's by 3 | 163 |
Saint Joseph's covered the spread, the side the model leaned to. The total went over; the model had it higher than the line. On the margin, the model was closer (off by 7.6 and 9.5).
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
South Florida 1-2WL
- Nov 5L 80-82at DePaulCovered +6.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 98-71vs Charleston So
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 76.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Saint Joseph's 3-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 74.5 and allowing 65.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Florida | Saint Joseph's | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.6 69th | 102.0 226th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.4 120th | 100.7 69th |
| Possessions a game | 72.7 29th | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 55th | 46.7% 356th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 143rd | 49.6% 122nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 114th | 15.7% 7th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 74th | 28.7% 332nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 218th | 0.27 115th |
The widest gap: South Florida's defense (120th) against Saint Joseph's's offense (226th), of 365 teams.
First half
Saint Joseph's led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 1.5.
- At halftime
- South Florida 34, Saint Joseph's 39
- Projected halftime score
- South Florida 37, Saint Joseph's 35
- First-half margin
- South Florida by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 39.0 scored, 41.5 allowed
- Saint Joseph's, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 35.5 scored, 26.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections, and what happened
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny WilsonG | 3935 | 1317.2 | 32.8 | 66.0 | 00.8 |
| Chris Davis Jr.G | 3631 | 1614.6 | 74.5 | 21.4 | 21.8 |
| Mike JamesG | 3428 | 166.2 | 95.2 | 31.5 | 31.1 |
| Garrett JohnsonF | 2127 | 615.0 | 43.5 | 01.5 | 02.6 |
| Zayden HighF | 2524 | 1311.6 | 86.6 | 31.1 | 00.6 |
| Josh OmojafoG | 821 | 18.7 | 03.7 | 01.1 | 00.6 |
| Andrej ShoshkikjG | 2518 | 156.8 | 62.3 | 11.6 | 30.8 |
Saint Joseph's
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaiden Glover-ToscanoG | 1336 | 518.0 | 25.7 | 00.9 | 02.4 |
| Austin WillifordG | 3434 | 97.6 | 56.1 | 41.4 | 01.2 |
| Khaafiq MyersG | 3632 | 1514.2 | 44.8 | 63.6 | 20.9 |
| Sean LoganF | 2432 | 86.1 | 57.2 | 12.2 | 00.2 |
| BJ RansonG | 3226 | 2111.1 | 23.3 | 11.7 | 61.5 |
| Logan CareyG | 2016 | 85.0 | 41.9 | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| Davis KemperF | Did not playprojected 2.5 points | ||||
Projections saved before tip-off and not changed since. Points were off by 5.5 a player in this game. How they have done all season