Coppin St at South Florida
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 2:00 PM ET at Yuengling Center. Coppin St our rank 348 · 1-3; South Florida our rank 94 · 1-2.
Who will win Coppin St vs South Florida?
The model gives South Florida a 99% chance to beat Coppin State, with a projected score of South Florida 87, Coppin St 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | |||||
| WilsonG · 33 min | 16.5 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 15+ 58% | |
| Davis Jr.G · 30 min | 15.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 52% | |
| JohnsonF · 24 min | 13.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 15+ 39% | |
| HighF · 24 min | 12.8 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| Coppin St | |||||
| JohnsonG · 26 min | 8.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 36% | |
| PiercyG · 22 min | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5+ 68% | |
| SparrowG · 24 min | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 5+ 63% | |
| WilliamsG · 20 min | 6.8 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 5+ 63% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zayden High: Coppin St 2%South Florida 98%
The white mark is the call with him: South Florida 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | ||||
| Zayden High | 2.4 | 98% | −1 | 64–86 |
| Sonny Wilson | 2.2 | 98% | −1 | 64–86 |
| Garrett Johnson | 1.7 | 98% | −1 | 63–86 |
| Josh Omojafo | 1.7 | 98% | −1 | 63–86 |
| Coppin St | ||||
| Tafara Gapare | 0.6 | 99% | 0 | 62–87 |
Change is in South Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Coppin St, then South Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Coppin St 1-3LLWL
- Nov 12L 54-56vs BradleyCovered +13.5 · Under 131.5
- Nov 9W 90-53vs Cheyney (PA)
- Nov 6L 51-68at George MasonCovered +28.5 · Under 140.5
- Nov 3L 54-88at Virginia Tech
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 62.2 and allowing 66.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
South Florida 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 80-83vs Saint Joseph'sDidn't cover −6.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 80-82at DePaulCovered +6.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 98-71vs Charleston So
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 86.0 and allowing 78.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Coppin St | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 91.2 362nd | 112.6 69th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.6 247th | 105.4 120th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 72.7 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.2% 326th | 52.6% 55th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 155th | 50.0% 143rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 21.3% 361st | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.7% 122nd | 33.7% 74th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 226th | 0.25 218th |
The widest gap: South Florida's defense (120th) against Coppin St's offense (362nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Coppin St 28, South Florida 42
- First-half margin
- South Florida by 13.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- Coppin St 34, South Florida 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Coppin St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 32.8 scored, 36.5 allowed
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 40.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Coppin St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan JohnsonG | 26 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Camaren SparrowG | 24 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Tafara GapareF | 23 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jamari PiercyG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Hussain WilliamsG | 20 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Malik ShacklefordG | 19 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Favour AireC | 17 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 4+ reb 46% | |||||
| Josiah BrownG | 16 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
Missed the last game: Sven Djopmo (16 min a game).
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny WilsonG | 33 | 16.5 | 2.9 | 6.6 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 51% · 7+ ast 48% | |||||
| Chris Davis Jr.G | 30 | 15.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mike JamesG | 28 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Garrett JohnsonF | 24 | 13.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 47% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Zayden HighF | 24 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 8+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Andrej ShoshkikjG | 20 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Josh OmojafoG | 16 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Tiefing DiawaraC | 11 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 3+ reb 57% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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