Tennessee St at South Florida
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Yuengling Center. Tennessee St our rank 250 · 2-1; South Florida our rank 94 · 1-2.
Who will win Tennessee St vs South Florida?
The model gives South Florida a 94% chance to beat Tennessee State, with a projected score of South Florida 89, Tennessee St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | |||||
| WilsonG · 34 min | 17.3 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 15+ 62% | |
| Davis Jr.G · 31 min | 16.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 15+ 56% | |
| JohnsonF · 25 min | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 42% | |
| HighF · 24 min | 13.2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| Tennessee St | |||||
| BradshawF · 24 min | 11.7 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 60% | |
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 11.2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 10+ 57% | |
| MorrisG · 24 min | 10.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 10+ 50% | |
| LindseyF · 23 min | 9.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 46% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Zayden High: Tennessee St 10%South Florida 90%
The white mark is the call with him: South Florida 94%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | South Florida without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | ||||
| Zayden High | 2.4 | 90% | −4 | 73–88 |
| Sonny Wilson | 2.2 | 91% | −3 | 73–88 |
| Garrett Johnson | 1.7 | 91% | −3 | 73–89 |
| Josh Omojafo | 1.7 | 91% | −3 | 73–89 |
| Tennessee St | ||||
| Aaron Bradshaw | 0.9 | 94% | 0 | 71–90 |
| Ty-Laur Johnson | 0.8 | 94% | 0 | 71–90 |
Change is in South Florida's win chance, in points. Scores read Tennessee St, then South Florida. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tennessee St 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 104.7 and allowing 76.0
South Florida 1-2WLL
- Nov 11L 80-83vs Saint Joseph'sDidn't cover −6.5 · Over 148.5
- Nov 5L 80-82at DePaulCovered +6.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2W 98-71vs Charleston So
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 86.0 and allowing 78.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tennessee St | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.6 280th | 112.6 69th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.7 216th | 105.4 120th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 16th | 72.7 29th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 331st | 52.6% 55th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 248th | 50.0% 143rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.3% 348th | 17.5% 114th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 183rd | 33.7% 74th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 47th | 0.25 218th |
The widest gap: South Florida's defense (120th) against Tennessee St's offense (280th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tennessee St 33, South Florida 43
- First-half margin
- South Florida by 9.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 75.7
- Projected second half
- Tennessee St 39, South Florida 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 85.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tennessee St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 36.7 allowed
- South Florida, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 40.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tennessee St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty-Laur JohnsonG | 24 | 11.2 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 58% | |||||
| Arterio MorrisG | 24 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 57% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Aaron BradshawF | 24 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Deondrea LindseyF | 23 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Christian AlstonG | 18 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jayden JonesG | 18 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Kavien JonesF | 16 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Presley PattersonG | 12 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
South Florida
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sonny WilsonG | 34 | 17.3 | 3.0 | 6.8 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 53% · 7+ ast 50% | |||||
| Chris Davis Jr.G | 31 | 16.2 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Mike JamesG | 29 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Garrett JohnsonF | 25 | 13.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Zayden HighF | 24 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 8+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Andrej ShoshkikjG | 20 | 9.8 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Josh OmojafoG | 16 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Tiefing DiawaraC | 11 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…