Murray St 94, Tennessee St 64
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 11:30 AM ET at Sanford Pentagon. Murray St our rank 82 · 3-0; Tennessee St our rank 250 · 2-1.
Who won Murray St vs Tennessee St?
Final: Murray State 94, Tennessee State 64. Before tip-off the model gave Murray State a 77% chance to win, with a projected margin of 9.0 points for Murray State. Roman Domon scored 22 for Murray St; Ty-Laur Johnson had 15 for Tennessee St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Roman Domon: Murray St 68%Tennessee St 32%
The white mark is the call with him: Murray St 77%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Murray St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murray St | ||||
| Roman Domon | 3.1 | 68% | −9 | 75–69 |
| Brigham Rogers | 2.6 | 70% | −7 | 75–68 |
| Christian Jones | 1.8 | 72% | −5 | 75–68 |
| Brayden Shorter | 1.2 | 74% | −3 | 75–68 |
| Tennessee St | ||||
| Aaron Bradshaw | 0.9 | 79% | +2 | 77–67 |
| Ty-Laur Johnson | 0.8 | 79% | +2 | 77–67 |
Change is in Murray St's win chance, in points. Scores read Murray St, then Tennessee St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Murray St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Tennessee St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Murray St | Tennessee St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.5 95th | 99.6 280th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.1 60th | 109.7 216th |
| Possessions a game | 73.5 7th | 73.2 16th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.4% 66th | 48.0% 331st |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.8% 59th | 51.4% 248th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.9% 274th | 20.3% 348th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 85th | 31.8% 183rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 124th | 0.29 47th |
The widest gap: Murray St's defense (60th) against Tennessee St's offense (280th), of 365 teams.
First half
Murray St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 6.0 points and the total by 13.8.
- At halftime
- Murray St 46, Tennessee St 35
- Projected halftime score
- Murray St 36, Tennessee St 31
- First-half margin
- Murray St by 5.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Murray St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman DomonG | 28 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Brigham RogersF | 26 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Talis SoulhacG | 22 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Brayden ShorterG | 21 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Kaden MagwoodG | 18 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian JonesG | 17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Lachlan CrateG | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben ShtolzbergG | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mathis CourbonG | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tennessee St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty-Laur JohnsonG | 32 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1 |
| Deondrea LindseyF | 30 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jayden JonesG | 24 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Aaron BradshawF | 23 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Kavien JonesF | 23 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Arterio MorrisG | 21 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Christian AlstonG | 16 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Presley PattersonG | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Maddux BodenhamerG | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |