Tennessee St at Tennessee
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Food City Center. Tennessee St our rank 250 · 2-1; Tennessee AP 11, our rank 11 · 2-0.
Who will win Tennessee St vs Tennessee?
The model gives Tennessee a >99% chance to beat Tennessee State, with a projected score of Tennessee 90, Tennessee St 57. The spread is Tennessee −29.5, with an over/under of 156.5. The model makes it Tennessee by 32.8, 3.3 points toward Tennessee, and projects 147 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | |||||
| Hill Jr.G · 24 min | 15.7 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 15+ 53% | |
| HaralsonG · 19 min | 11.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 10+ 58% | |
| HarrisG · 24 min | 11.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 10+ 58% | |
| Dai AmesG · 20 min | 11.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 55% | |
| Tennessee St | |||||
| BradshawF · 23 min | 9.7 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 46% | |
| JohnsonG · 24 min | 9.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 10+ 43% | |
| MorrisG · 24 min | 8.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 10+ 38% | |
| LindseyF · 22 min | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Terrence Hill Jr.: Tennessee St 1%Tennessee 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Tennessee >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Tennessee without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | ||||
| Terrence Hill Jr. | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 59–88 |
| Juke Harris | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 59–88 |
| DeWayne Brown II | 3.8 | 99% | −1 | 59–88 |
| Miles Rubin | 2.6 | 99% | −1 | 58–89 |
| Tennessee St | ||||
| Aaron Bradshaw | 0.9 | >99% | 0 | 57–90 |
| Ty-Laur Johnson | 0.8 | >99% | 0 | 57–90 |
Change is in Tennessee's win chance, in points. Scores read Tennessee St, then Tennessee. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Tennessee −29.5 | 156.5 |
| Model | Tennessee −32.8 | 147.0 |
| Gap | 3.3 toward Tennessee | 9.5 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tennessee St 2-1LWW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 104.7 and allowing 76.0
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tennessee St | Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.6 280th | 115.8 42nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.7 216th | 90.2 6th |
| Possessions a game | 73.2 16th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.0% 331st | 50.3% 203rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.4% 248th | 46.4% 6th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.3% 348th | 18.8% 265th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 183rd | 31.4% 201st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 47th | 0.26 168th |
The widest gap: Tennessee's defense (6th) against Tennessee St's offense (280th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tennessee St 25, Tennessee 43
- First-half margin
- Tennessee by 18.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.0
- Projected second half
- Tennessee St 32, Tennessee 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tennessee St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 36.7 allowed
- Tennessee, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 33.5 scored, 27.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tennessee St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty-Laur JohnsonG | 24 | 9.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Arterio MorrisG | 24 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Aaron BradshawF | 23 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Deondrea LindseyF | 22 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Christian AlstonG | 18 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Jayden JonesG | 18 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Kavien JonesF | 16 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Presley PattersonG | 13 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Tennessee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWayne Brown IIF | 25 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 9+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Juke HarrisG | 24 | 11.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Terrence Hill Jr.G | 24 | 15.7 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Miles RubinC | 23 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Tyler LundbladeG | 22 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Dai Dai AmesG | 20 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 2+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jalen HaralsonG | 19 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Braedan LueF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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