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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Texas Southern at Murray St

Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at CFSB Center. Texas Southern our rank 347 · 1-2; Murray St our rank 82 · 3-0.

Who will win Texas Southern vs Murray St?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Murray State a 99% chance to beat Texas Southern, with a projected score of Murray St 92, Texas Southern 65. The spread is Murray St −27.5, with an over/under of 161.5. The model makes it Murray St by 26.6, 0.9 points toward Texas Southern, and projects 156 total points.

To winMurray St 99%Texas Southern 1%
Projected score65–92Texas Southern, then Murray St
Margin26.6Murray St · line: Murray St 27.5
Total156.5line: 161.5
First half29–44Murray St ahead 91%
Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40by 50Murray St by 60Model: Murray St by 26.6Line: Murray St by 27.5Evenby 20by 40Murray St by 60Model: Murray St by 26.6Line: Murray St by 27.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Murray St
DomonG · 28 min20.75.42.920+ 53%
ShorterG · 23 min16.23.00.615+ 56%
RogersF · 25 min8.46.92.610+ 36%
SoulhacG · 19 min7.82.72.610+ 32%
Texas Southern
PattersonG · 22 min11.32.91.210+ 57%
KimbroughG · 28 min10.02.52.210+ 48%
BilalG · 30 min9.92.61.810+ 47%
VungoG · 25 min7.86.60.710+ 32%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Roman Domon: Texas Southern 2%Murray St 98%

The white mark is the call with him: Murray St 99%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsMurray St without himChangeProjected score
Murray St
Roman Domon3.198%−167–90
Brigham Rogers2.698%−166–90
Christian Jones1.899%066–91
Brayden Shorter1.299%066–91

Change is in Murray St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas Southern, then Murray St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineMurray St −27.5161.5
ModelMurray St −26.6156.5
Gap0.9 toward Texas Southern5 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Texas Southern 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 10W 98-78vs College of Biblical Studies
    2. Nov 6L 51-92at LSUDidn't cover +35.5 · Under 161.5
    3. Nov 2L 79-103at Grand Canyon
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 76.0 and allowing 91.0
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Murray St 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 94-57vs Alcorn StCovered −30.5 · Under 165.5
    2. Nov 7W 93-71vs N'Western StDidn't cover −23.5 · Over 155.5
    3. Nov 2W 94-64vs Tennessee St
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 93.7 and allowing 64.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Texas SouthernMurray St
    Points scored per 100 possessions96.4 320th109.5 95th
    Points allowed per 100115.4 343rd100.1 60th
    Possessions a game72.3 49th73.5 7th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)48.4% 319th52.4% 66th
    Opponents' shooting52.1% 291st48.8% 59th
    Turnovers, share of possessions17.2% 83rd18.9% 274th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses30.3% 267th33.5% 85th
    Free throws per shot0.29 67th0.27 124th

    The widest gap: Murray St's defense (60th) against Texas Southern's offense (320th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Texas Southern 29, Murray St 44
    First-half margin
    Murray St by 14.6
    First-half points, both teams
    73.4
    Projected second half
    Texas Southern 36, Murray St 48
    Second-half points, both teams
    83.1
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Texas Southern, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 35.7 scored, 44.0 allowed
    Murray St, first halves so far
    Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Texas Southern

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Karris BilalG309.92.61.81.0
    10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 50%
    Jason KimbroughG2810.02.52.21.5
    10+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 40%
    Ben VungoG257.86.60.70.5
    10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40%
    Kehlin FarooqG234.64.21.00.8
    5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 52%
    Cameron PattersonG2211.32.91.20.4
    10+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 34%
    Josh AkpovwaF195.02.70.30.1
    5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 48%
    Xander WedlowF165.72.90.30.2
    5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 16%
    Sayed SayedG143.31.90.90.6
    5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 41%

    Murray St

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Roman DomonG2820.75.42.91.8
    20+ pts 53% · 3+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 49%
    Brigham RogersF258.46.92.60.0
    10+ pts 36% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 46%
    Brayden ShorterG2316.23.00.63.2
    15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ threes 55%
    Christian JonesG217.62.83.81.4
    5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 51%
    Talis SoulhacG197.82.72.60.7
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 47%
    Lachlan CrateG195.83.31.40.5
    5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 40%
    Mathis CourbonG165.32.41.50.7
    5+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 48%
    Ben ShtolzbergG155.22.21.50.3
    5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 43%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

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    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Texas Southern next: at UC San Diego, Mon, Nov 16 · 4%Murray St next: vs Hofstra, Tue, Nov 17 · 79%Texas Southern: schedule and oddsMurray St: schedule and odds