Who will win St Thomas vs Milwaukee?
The model gives Milwaukee a 57% chance to beat St. Thomas, with a projected score of Milwaukee 78, St Thomas 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Milwaukee | |||||
| HerefordG · 26 min | 12.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 10+ 65% | |
| JacksonF · 24 min | 10.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 52% | |
| JovanovichF · 31 min | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 45% | |
| NormanG · 27 min | 9.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 10+ 43% | |
 St Thomas | |||||
| TibbitsG · 29 min | 11.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 10+ 61% | |
| FranksG · 26 min | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 52% | |
| LorenzF · 25 min | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 10+ 46% | |
| BjerkeF · 25 min | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Danilo Jovanovich: St Thomas 46%Milwaukee 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Milwaukee 57%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Milwaukee without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Danilo Jovanovich | 0.8 | 54% | −3 | 77–78 |
| John Lovelace Jr. | 0.7 | 54% | −3 | 77–78 |
| Chandler Jackson | 0.6 | 55% | −2 | 77–78 |
| St Thomas | ||||
| Kendall Blue | 0.8 | 60% | +3 | 76–79 |
| Carter Bjerke | 0.5 | 59% | +2 | 76–79 |
| Jeremy Lorenz | 0.5 | 59% | +2 | 76–79 |
Change is in Milwaukee's win chance, in points. Scores read St Thomas, then Milwaukee. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
St Thomas 2-2WLLW
- Nov 11W 119-82vs Macalester
- Nov 8L 67-76vs Green BayDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 6L 62-76at MinnesotaCovered +14.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 87-78at Presbyterian
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 83.8 and allowing 78.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Milwaukee 2-2LLWW
- Nov 11W 82-73at Indiana StCovered +4.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 8W 99-48vs Ripon
- Nov 4L 72-95at Santa ClaraDidn't cover +15.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2L 63-95at USC
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 79.0 and allowing 77.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| St Thomas | Milwaukee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.3 138th | 102.5 207th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.6 245th | 108.5 187th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 137th | 50.6% 175th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.0% 69th | 52.0% 282nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 90th | 17.6% 132nd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.9% 353rd | 31.3% 213th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 20th | 0.26 212th |
The widest gap: St Thomas's offense (138th) against Milwaukee's defense (187th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- St Thomas 36, Milwaukee 37
- First-half margin
- Milwaukee by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- St Thomas 41, Milwaukee 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- St Thomas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 37.8 allowed
- Milwaukee, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 39.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
St Thomas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden TibbitsG | 29 | 11.9 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Tim FranksG | 26 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Carter BjerkeF | 25 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Jeremy LorenzF | 25 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jonovan WilkinsonG | 22 | 8.0 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Caden WilkinsF | 17 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Austin HerroG | 16 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| 53% to play · 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Kendall BlueG | 13 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Missed the last game: Austin Herro (20 min a game).
Milwaukee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo JovanovichF | 31 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Tre NormanG | 27 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 42% | |||||
| Amare HerefordG | 26 | 12.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 48% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Chandler JacksonF | 24 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Nate MalosaF | 23 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Aaron Womack IIIG | 18 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Isaiah DorceusG | 18 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Al AmadouF | 14 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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