Who will win Milwaukee vs TCU?
The model gives TCU a 97% chance to beat Milwaukee, with a projected score of TCU 87, Milwaukee 65. The spread is TCU −23.5, with an over/under of 158.5. The model makes it TCU by 21.5, 2.0 points toward Milwaukee, and projects 152 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TCU | |||||
| RobinsonG · 31 min | 17.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 20+ 37% | |
| SykesG · 26 min | 14.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| EdmondsF · 25 min | 14.0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 15+ 43% | |
| ThomasF · 26 min | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 61% | |
 Milwaukee | |||||
| HerefordG · 25 min | 10.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 10+ 50% | |
| JacksonF · 23 min | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 39% | |
| JovanovichF · 29 min | 7.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 31% | |
| NormanG · 25 min | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Xavier Edmonds: Milwaukee 5%TCU 95%
The white mark is the call with him: TCU 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | TCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | ||||
| Xavier Edmonds | 3.7 | 95% | −2 | 67–85 |
| Micah Robinson | 3.6 | 95% | −2 | 67–85 |
| Brock Harding | 3.1 | 95% | −2 | 67–85 |
| Tanner Toolson | 2.8 | 95% | −2 | 66–85 |
| Milwaukee | ||||
| Danilo Jovanovich | 0.8 | 98% | +1 | 65–87 |
| John Lovelace Jr. | 0.7 | 98% | +1 | 65–87 |
| Chandler Jackson | 0.6 | 98% | +1 | 65–87 |
Change is in TCU's win chance, in points. Scores read Milwaukee, then TCU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | TCU −23.5 | 158.5 |
| Model | TCU −21.5 | 151.5 |
| Gap | 2 toward Milwaukee | 7 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Milwaukee 2-2LLWW
- Nov 11W 82-73at Indiana StCovered +4.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 8W 99-48vs Ripon
- Nov 4L 72-95at Santa ClaraDidn't cover +15.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2L 63-95at USC
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 79.0 and allowing 77.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Milwaukee | TCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.5 207th | 114.3 58th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.5 187th | 97.7 38th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 175th | 49.3% 271st |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.0% 282nd | 50.9% 212th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 17.0% 60th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 213th | 34.8% 26th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 212th | 0.32 9th |
The widest gap: TCU's defense (38th) against Milwaukee's offense (207th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Milwaukee 30, TCU 41
- First-half margin
- TCU by 11.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- Milwaukee 35, TCU 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Milwaukee, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 36.8 scored, 39.5 allowed
- TCU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.0 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Milwaukee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo JovanovichF | 29 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Tre NormanG | 25 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Amare HerefordG | 25 | 10.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Chandler JacksonF | 23 | 8.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Nate MalosaF | 22 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Aaron Womack IIIG | 18 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Isaiah DorceusG | 18 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Al AmadouF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
TCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock HardingG | 31 | 11.6 | 3.1 | 7.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 55% · 7+ ast 54% | |||||
| Micah RobinsonG | 31 | 17.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tanner ToolsonG | 27 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Gavin SykesG | 26 | 14.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| DJ ThomasF | 26 | 11.8 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Xavier EdmondsF | 25 | 14.0 | 7.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Trent LincolnG | 18 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Ryan HuntF | 14 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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