Who won Milwaukee vs USC?
Final: USC 95, Milwaukee 63. Before tip-off the model gave USC a 96% chance to win, with a projected margin of 21.3 points for USC. Adonis Ratliff scored 25 for USC; Amare Hereford had 14 for Milwaukee.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: Milwaukee 8%USC 92%
The white mark is the call with him: USC 96%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | 92% | −4 | 61–79 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | 93% | −3 | 61–79 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | 93% | −3 | 61–79 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | 93% | −3 | 61–79 |
 Milwaukee | ||||
| Danilo Jovanovich | 0.8 | 96% | 0 | 59–81 |
| John Lovelace Jr. | 0.7 | 96% | 0 | 59–81 |
| Chandler Jackson | 0.6 | 96% | 0 | 59–81 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read Milwaukee, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Milwaukee
No games yet this season: this is its first.
USC
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Milwaukee | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.5 207th | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.5 187th | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.6% 175th | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.0% 282nd | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.6% 132nd | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 213th | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 212th | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's defense (40th) against Milwaukee's offense (207th), of 365 teams.
First half
USC led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 5.3 points and the total by 9.3.
- At halftime
- Milwaukee 29, USC 46
- Projected halftime score
- Milwaukee 27, USC 39
- First-half margin
- USC by 11.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Milwaukee
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo JovanovichF | 31 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Amare HerefordG | 26 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Tre NormanG | 25 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Nate MalosaF | 24 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chandler JacksonF | 18 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Isaiah DorceusG | 16 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| John Lovelace Jr.G | 16 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Al AmadouF | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake HansenG | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney RiceG | 32 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| Alijah ArenasG | 29 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 1 |
| Darius RatliffC | 28 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Adonis RatliffF | 24 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| KJ LewisG | 23 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Isaac BrunsG | 16 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Aaron Hunkin-ClaytorG | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jalen CoxG | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob CofieF | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |