AR-Pine Bluff at USC
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Galen Center. AR-Pine Bluff our rank 365 · 0-3; USC AP 21, our rank 38 · 3-0.
Who will win AR-Pine Bluff vs USC?
The model gives USC a >99% chance to beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff, with a projected score of USC 97, AR-Pine Bluff 58.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | |||||
| ArenasG · 31 min | 22.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 20+ 60% | |
| RiceG · 32 min | 21.2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 20+ 56% | |
| LewisG · 23 min | 12.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| RatliffF · 19 min | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 51% | |
| AR-Pine Bluff | |||||
| RichF · 24 min | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| TatumG · 28 min | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 39% | |
| WilliamsonF · 24 min | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 5+ 53% | |
| SmithF · 22 min | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 5+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: AR-Pine Bluff <1%USC >99%
The white mark is the call with him: USC >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 60–95 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | >99% | 0 | 60–96 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 60–96 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | >99% | 0 | 60–96 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read AR-Pine Bluff, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
AR-Pine Bluff 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 37-106at UCLADidn't cover +47.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 6L 53-109at BaylorDidn't cover +38.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 3L 61-106at Arkansas
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 50.3 and allowing 107.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-65at CaliforniaCovered −8.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 8W 93-86vs Wichita StCovered −6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 2W 95-63vs Milwaukee
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 71.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| AR-Pine Bluff | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 90.6 363rd | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 116.9 356th | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 72.9 24th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.6% 345th | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.6% 313th | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 25.5% 365th | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.2% 151st | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 232nd | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's defense (40th) against AR-Pine Bluff's offense (363rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- AR-Pine Bluff 26, USC 47
- First-half margin
- USC by 21.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Projected second half
- AR-Pine Bluff 32, USC 50
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- AR-Pine Bluff, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 16.7 scored, 52.0 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
AR-Pine Bluff
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen TatumG | 28 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Creed WilliamsonF | 24 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Macaleab RichF | 24 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| CJ SmithF | 22 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Harrison PickettG | 19 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 25% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Jai'chaunn HayesG | 19 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Kalli JohnsonG | 15 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 38% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Jeremy NyakundiF | 14 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney RiceG | 32 | 21.2 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 45% · 7+ ast 54% | |||||
| Alijah ArenasG | 31 | 22.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jacob CofieF | 24 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 8+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| KJ LewisG | 23 | 12.7 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Adonis RatliffF | 19 | 10.4 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jadis JonesG | 18 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Darius RatliffC | 17 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Joshua HughesF | 11 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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