Tarleton St at USC
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 11:00 PM ET at Galen Center. Tarleton St our rank 252 · 2-1; USC AP 21, our rank 38 · 3-0.
Who will win Tarleton St vs USC?
The model gives USC a 99% chance to beat Tarleton State, with a projected score of USC 91, Tarleton St 64.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | |||||
| ArenasG · 32 min | 21.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 20+ 57% | |
| RiceG · 33 min | 20.8 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 20+ 54% | |
| LewisG · 23 min | 12.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| RatliffF · 19 min | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| Tarleton St | |||||
| Kelly IVG · 30 min | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 48% | |
| CopeG · 27 min | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 40% | |
| EmmouG · 25 min | 7.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 33% | |
| FreemanG · 18 min | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 5+ 67% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: Tarleton St 3%USC 97%
The white mark is the call with him: USC 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | 97% | −2 | 66–89 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | 98% | −1 | 66–89 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | 98% | −1 | 66–89 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | 98% | −1 | 65–89 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read Tarleton St, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.0 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-65at CaliforniaCovered −8.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 8W 93-86vs Wichita StCovered −6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 2W 95-63vs Milwaukee
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 71.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tarleton St | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 269th | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 235th | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 58th | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 97th | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 244th | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 134th | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 32nd | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's defense (40th) against Tarleton St's offense (269th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tarleton St 29, USC 44
- First-half margin
- USC by 14.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Projected second half
- Tarleton St 35, USC 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 29.3 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG | 30 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| TJ CopeG | 27 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Franck EmmouG | 25 | 7.9 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Adrian ShackletonG | 22 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Kade DouglasG | 21 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Trey HarrisG | 19 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Brett FreemanG | 18 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jac ManiF | 18 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jac Mani (20 min a game).
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney RiceG | 33 | 20.8 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 |
| 20+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 44% · 7+ ast 46% | |||||
| Alijah ArenasG | 32 | 21.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 40% | |||||
| Jacob CofieF | 25 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| KJ LewisG | 23 | 12.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Adonis RatliffF | 19 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jadis JonesG | 18 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Darius RatliffC | 17 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Joshua HughesF | 11 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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