Who will win NC State vs Murray St?
The model gives NC State a 66% chance to beat Murray State, with a projected score of NC State 80, Murray St 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NC State | |||||
| LubinF · 27 min | 14.3 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 15+ 44% | |
| McNeil Jr.G · 29 min | 13.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 15+ 39% | |
| EdmeadG · 31 min | 13.0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| HammondG · 26 min | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 15+ 35% | |
 Murray St | |||||
| DomonG · 30 min | 18.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 20+ 43% | |
| ShorterG · 24 min | 14.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 15+ 44% | |
| RogersF · 26 min | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 5+ 69% | |
| JonesG · 22 min | 6.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 5+ 62% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Ven-Allen Lubin: NC State 54%Murray St 46%
The white mark is the call with him: NC State 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | NC State without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | ||||
| Ven-Allen Lubin | 3.5 | 54% | −12 | 78–77 |
| Paul McNeil Jr. | 3.0 | 55% | −11 | 79–77 |
| Christian Hammond | 2.9 | 56% | −10 | 79–77 |
| Preston Edmead | 2.4 | 58% | −8 | 79–77 |
| Murray St | ||||
| Roman Domon | 3.1 | 75% | +9 | 82–74 |
| Brigham Rogers | 2.6 | 74% | +8 | 81–74 |
| Christian Jones | 1.8 | 71% | +5 | 81–75 |
| Brayden Shorter | 1.2 | 70% | +4 | 81–75 |
Change is in NC State's win chance, in points. Scores read NC State, then Murray St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
NC State 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 94-60vs PresbyterianCovered −18.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6W 77-63vs ETSUDidn't cover −17.5 · Under 152.5
- Nov 2W 83-64vs Campbell
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 84.7 and allowing 62.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Murray St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 94-57vs Alcorn StCovered −30.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 7W 93-71vs N'Western StDidn't cover −23.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 2W 94-64vs Tennessee St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 93.7 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| NC State | Murray St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.7 55th | 109.5 95th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 99.7 52nd | 100.1 60th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 73.5 7th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.9% 89th | 52.4% 66th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.2% 164th | 48.8% 59th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 247th | 18.9% 274th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 89th | 33.5% 85th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 337th | 0.27 124th |
The widest gap: NC State's defense (52nd) against Murray St's offense (95th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- NC State 38, Murray St 35
- First-half margin
- NC State by 2.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Projected second half
- NC State 42, Murray St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- NC State, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 24.7 allowed
- Murray St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 46.3 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
NC State
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston EdmeadG | 31 | 13.0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Paul McNeil Jr.G | 29 | 13.3 | 5.2 | 1.0 | 3.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 56% | |||||
| Ven-Allen LubinF | 27 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 7+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Christian HammondG | 26 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Darius AdamsG | 25 | 10.7 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Eemeli YalahoF | 21 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Kyle EvansF | 20 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
Murray St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman DomonG | 30 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 20+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Brigham RogersF | 26 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Brayden ShorterG | 24 | 14.3 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 2.9 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 50% | |||||
| Christian JonesG | 22 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Talis SoulhacG | 19 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Lachlan CrateG | 18 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Mathis CourbonG | 16 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Ben ShtolzbergG | 15 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…