Who will win Oregon St vs Oregon?
The model gives Oregon a 68% chance to beat Oregon State, with a projected score of Oregon 81, Oregon St 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon | |||||
| Riley IVG · 28 min | 12.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 65% | |
| PayneG · 25 min | 12.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 10+ 65% | |
| EwinC · 21 min | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 10+ 48% | |
| MeadowF · 21 min | 9.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 10+ 46% | |
 Oregon St | |||||
| FreitagG · 26 min | 16.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| GoryF · 25 min | 13.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 15+ 37% | |
| SmileyG · 27 min | 12.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 15+ 36% | |
| Lake IIG · 29 min | 12.7 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 15+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Malique Ewin: Oregon St 42%Oregon 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon 68%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | ||||
| Malique Ewin | 2.9 | 58% | −10 | 77–79 |
| Dwayne Aristode | 2.4 | 60% | −8 | 77–79 |
| Taylor Bol Bowen | 2.0 | 61% | −7 | 76–80 |
| Andrew Meadow | 2.0 | 61% | −7 | 76–80 |
| Oregon St | ||||
| Daniel Freitag | 1.9 | 74% | +6 | 74–82 |
| DeShawn Gory | 1.9 | 74% | +6 | 74–82 |
| Josiah Lake II | 1.9 | 74% | +6 | 74–82 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.7 | 73% | +5 | 75–81 |
Change is in Oregon's win chance, in points. Scores read Oregon St, then Oregon. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Oregon St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 94-84vs E WashingtonDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 96-68vs CA BaptistCovered −20.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 102-61vs Weber St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 97.3 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
Oregon 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 100-66vs Miss Valley StCovered −33.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 6W 98-71vs E WashingtonCovered −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 87-69vs Montana
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.0 and allowing 68.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Oregon St | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.5 71st | 117.3 28th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.7 111th | 101.0 72nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 70.1 261st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 121st | 56.2% 2nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.5% 113th | 51.3% 243rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.9% 54th | 17.1% 76th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.6% 191st | 32.1% 155th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.31 23rd | 0.21 357th |
The widest gap: Oregon's offense (28th) against Oregon St's defense (111th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Oregon St 35, Oregon 38
- First-half margin
- Oregon by 2.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Projected second half
- Oregon St 40, Oregon 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 35.3 allowed
- Oregon, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Lake IIG | 29 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Xavion StatonC | 27 | 7.1 | 6.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 34% | |||||
| Legend SmileyG | 27 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 46% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Daniel FreitagG | 26 | 16.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| DeShawn GoryF | 25 | 13.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Chris JohnsonG | 20 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Jemai LakeG | 15 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Dennis EvansC | 12 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 55% | |||||
Oregon
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Riley IVG | 28 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 23% to play · 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Fred PayneG | 25 | 12.4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 3+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Malique EwinC | 21 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Andrew MeadowF | 21 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jasper JohnsonG | 20 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Taylor Bol BowenF | 19 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 43% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Wei LinG | 19 | 9.7 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Dwayne AristodeF | 18 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tyrone Riley IV (33 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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