Who won Weber St vs Oregon St?
Final: Oregon State 102, Weber State 61. Before tip-off the model gave Oregon State a 83% chance to win, with a projected margin of 11.7 points for Oregon State. Daniel Freitag scored 23 for Oregon St; Gavin Lowe had 15 for Weber St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Daniel Freitag: Weber St 21%Oregon St 79%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon St 83%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oregon St | ||||
| Daniel Freitag | 1.9 | 79% | −4 | 63–73 |
| DeShawn Gory | 1.9 | 79% | −4 | 63–73 |
| Josiah Lake II | 1.9 | 79% | −4 | 63–73 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.7 | 79% | −4 | 63–73 |
Change is in Oregon St's win chance, in points. Scores read Weber St, then Oregon St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Weber St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Oregon St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Weber St | Oregon St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.4 211th | 112.5 71st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.8 334th | 104.7 111th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 260th | 51.3% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 54.3% 353rd | 49.5% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.6% 36th | 16.9% 54th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 31.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 344th | 0.31 23rd |
The widest gap: Oregon St's offense (71st) against Weber St's defense (334th), of 365 teams.
First half
Oregon St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 14.0.
- At halftime
- Weber St 35, Oregon St 43
- Projected halftime score
- Weber St 29, Oregon St 35
- First-half margin
- Oregon St by 6.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Weber St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan WarlickF | 31 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Augustine EkweC | 28 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| ArDarius GraysonG | 26 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Gavin LoweG | 24 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Dyllan ThompsonF | 20 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Chamberlain BurgessF | 17 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aaron PowellG | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brock FelderF | 14 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason AbittanG | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Lake IIG | 26 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Daniel FreitagG | 26 | 23 | 7 | 2 | 1 |
| DeShawn GoryF | 25 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavion StatonC | 24 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 0 |
| Legend SmileyG | 23 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Chris JohnsonG | 19 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 2 |
| Jemai LakeG | 16 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Peteris PinnisF | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson RasmussenF | 8 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 |