Miss Valley St at Oregon St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Gill Coliseum. Miss Valley St our rank 360 · 0-3; Oregon St our rank 91 · 3-0.
Who will win Miss Valley St vs Oregon St?
The model gives Oregon State a 99% chance to beat Mississippi Valley State, with a projected score of Oregon St 90, Miss Valley St 62. The spread is Oregon St −33.5, with an over/under of 154.5. The model makes it Oregon St by 27.4, 6.1 points toward Miss Valley St, and projects 152 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | |||||
| FreitagG · 25 min | 17.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 20+ 37% | |
| GoryF · 24 min | 14.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 46% | |
| SmileyG · 25 min | 14.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 43% | |
| Lake IIG · 27 min | 13.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 15+ 41% | |
| Miss Valley St | |||||
| WilliamsF · 31 min | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 53% | |
| MartinezPF · 28 min | 10.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| AngloG · 26 min | 10.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| AbramsG · 21 min | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Daniel Freitag: Miss Valley St 1%Oregon St 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Oregon St 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Oregon St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon St | ||||
| Daniel Freitag | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 63–89 |
| DeShawn Gory | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 63–89 |
| Josiah Lake II | 1.9 | 99% | 0 | 63–89 |
| Chris Johnson | 1.7 | 99% | 0 | 63–89 |
Change is in Oregon St's win chance, in points. Scores read Miss Valley St, then Oregon St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Oregon St −33.5 | 154.5 |
| Model | Oregon St −27.4 | 151.6 |
| Gap | 6.1 toward Miss Valley St | 2.9 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Miss Valley St 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 66-100at OregonDidn't cover +33.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 9L 64-77at WashingtonCovered +31.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 6L 57-84at OklahomaCovered +40.5 · Under 152.5
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.3 and allowing 87.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Oregon St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 94-84vs E WashingtonDidn't cover −17.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 6W 96-68vs CA BaptistCovered −20.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 2W 102-61vs Weber St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 97.3 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miss Valley St | Oregon St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.5 349th | 112.5 71st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.6 360th | 104.7 111th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 315th | 51.3% 121st |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 335th | 49.5% 113th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 117th | 16.9% 54th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 247th | 31.6% 191st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 151st | 0.31 23rd |
The widest gap: Oregon St's offense (71st) against Miss Valley St's defense (360th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Miss Valley St 28, Oregon St 43
- First-half margin
- Oregon St by 15.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- Miss Valley St 34, Oregon St 46
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Miss Valley St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 43.7 allowed
- Oregon St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 45.3 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Miss Valley St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tymias WilliamsF | 31 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 7+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Gabriel MartinezPF | 28 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 36% | |||||
| Caleb CameronG | 27 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Matt AngloG | 26 | 10.2 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ ast 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Eli PippinsPG | 22 | 7.2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| AJ AbramsG | 21 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Tory James Jr.G | 19 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Tianhao WuC | 14 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 43% | |||||
Oregon St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Lake IIG | 27 | 13.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 41% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Xavion StatonC | 26 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Legend SmileyG | 25 | 14.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ threes 43% | |||||
| Daniel FreitagG | 25 | 17.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| DeShawn GoryF | 24 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Chris JohnsonG | 19 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Jemai LakeG | 16 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dennis EvansC | 14 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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