Miss Valley St at Arkansas
Friday, November 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena. Miss Valley St our rank 360 · 0-3; Arkansas AP 19, our rank 40 · 2-1.
Who will win Miss Valley St vs Arkansas?
The model gives Arkansas a >99% chance to beat Mississippi Valley State, with a projected score of Arkansas 96, Miss Valley St 59.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | |||||
| WilkinsonG · 24 min | 16.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 15+ 57% | |
| Smith Jr.G · 25 min | 12.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| Richmond IIIG · 26 min | 12.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 10+ 63% | |
| BowserF · 25 min | 10.8 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| Miss Valley St | |||||
| WilliamsF · 30 min | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| MartinezPF · 27 min | 9.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| AngloG · 26 min | 9.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| AbramsG · 20 min | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Billy Richmond III: Miss Valley St <1%Arkansas >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | ||||
| Billy Richmond III | 4.1 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 61–94 |
| Cooper Bowser | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 61–94 |
| Jordan Smith Jr. | 1.8 | >99% | 0 | 60–95 |
Change is in Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read Miss Valley St, then Arkansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Miss Valley St 0-3LLL
- Nov 11L 66-100at OregonDidn't cover +33.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 9L 64-77at WashingtonCovered +31.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 6L 57-84at OklahomaCovered +40.5 · Under 152.5
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 62.3 and allowing 87.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 76-53vs Robert MorrisDidn't cover −29.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 8L 72-91vs VirginiaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 3W 106-61vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.7 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Miss Valley St | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.5 349th | 117.0 29th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 117.6 360th | 99.9 56th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 315th | 51.1% 135th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.1% 335th | 51.1% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.5% 117th | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 247th | 35.4% 17th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 151st | 0.26 162nd |
The widest gap: Arkansas's offense (29th) against Miss Valley St's defense (360th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Miss Valley St 26, Arkansas 46
- First-half margin
- Arkansas by 19.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.8
- Projected second half
- Miss Valley St 33, Arkansas 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Miss Valley St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 43.7 allowed
- Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Miss Valley St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tymias WilliamsF | 30 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Gabriel MartinezPF | 27 | 9.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 34% | |||||
| Caleb CameronG | 26 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Matt AngloG | 26 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Eli PippinsPG | 22 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| AJ AbramsG | 20 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Tory James Jr.G | 19 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Tianhao WuC | 15 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 42% | |||||
Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Richmond IIIG | 26 | 12.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Cooper BowserF | 25 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Jordan Smith Jr.G | 25 | 12.7 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jeremiah WilkinsonG | 24 | 16.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Davion ThompsonG | 20 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Miikka MuurinenF | 20 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| JJ AndrewsF | 17 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Maper MakerF | 16 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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