C Arkansas at Arkansas
Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena. C Arkansas our rank 162 · 2-1; Arkansas AP 19, our rank 40 · 2-1.
Who will win C Arkansas vs Arkansas?
The model gives Arkansas a 97% chance to beat Central Arkansas, with a projected score of Arkansas 89, C Arkansas 68. The spread is Arkansas −25.5, with an over/under of 161.5. The model makes it Arkansas by 20.9, 4.6 points toward C Arkansas, and projects 158 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | |||||
| WilkinsonG · 24 min | 15.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 15+ 54% | |
| Smith Jr.G · 26 min | 12.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 65% | |
| Richmond IIIG · 28 min | 12.0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| BowserF · 26 min | 10.6 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
| C Arkansas | |||||
| RobinsonG · 20 min | 12.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 10+ 62% | |
| MooreG · 22 min | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 10+ 35% | |
| BeauchampG · 21 min | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 5+ 59% | |
| McCormickG · 22 min | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Billy Richmond III: C Arkansas 7%Arkansas 93%
The white mark is the call with him: Arkansas 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arkansas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | ||||
| Billy Richmond III | 4.1 | 93% | −4 | 70–87 |
| Jeremiah Wilkinson | 3.9 | 93% | −4 | 70–87 |
| Cooper Bowser | 3.1 | 94% | −3 | 70–88 |
| Jordan Smith Jr. | 1.8 | 95% | −2 | 69–88 |
| C Arkansas | ||||
| Ty Robinson | 1.4 | 98% | +1 | 68–90 |
| Tucker Anderson | 0.9 | 97% | 0 | 68–90 |
| Luke Moore | 0.5 | 97% | 0 | 68–90 |
Change is in Arkansas's win chance, in points. Scores read C Arkansas, then Arkansas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Arkansas −25.5 | 161.5 |
| Model | Arkansas −20.9 | 157.6 |
| Gap | 4.6 toward C Arkansas | 3.9 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 127-54vs Ecclesia
- Nov 6L 60-92at Ole MissDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 85-55vs Oral Roberts
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 76-53vs Robert MorrisDidn't cover −29.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 8L 72-91vs VirginiaDidn't cover +3.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 3W 106-61vs AR-Pine Bluff
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.7 and allowing 68.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Arkansas | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.2 177th | 117.0 29th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.0 172nd | 99.9 56th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 144th | 51.1% 135th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 106th | 51.1% 228th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 194th | 17.9% 166th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 295th | 35.4% 17th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 186th | 0.26 162nd |
The widest gap: Arkansas's offense (29th) against C Arkansas's defense (172nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Arkansas 31, Arkansas 43
- First-half margin
- Arkansas by 11.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Projected second half
- C Arkansas 37, Arkansas 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
- Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke MooreG | 22 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Cole McCormickG | 22 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Harry BeauchampG | 21 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Ty RobinsonG | 20 | 12.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Simm-Marten SaadiF | 19 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 60% | |||||
| Tucker AndersonF | 18 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Rylie MarshallG | 16 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Malchiah MarableF | 15 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
Missed the last game: Malchiah Marable (15 min a game).
Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Richmond IIIG | 28 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Cooper BowserF | 26 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Jordan Smith Jr.G | 26 | 12.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Jeremiah WilkinsonG | 24 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 39% | |||||
| Davion ThompsonG | 20 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Miikka MuurinenF | 20 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| JJ AndrewsF | 17 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Maper MakerF | 16 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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